THE BUZZ: RED ALERT — For the first time in a decade, California Republicans are on track to gain seats in the Legislature — a stark shift after losing ground to moderate Democrats cycle after cycle. Republicans are expected to flip as many as three legislative districts when all the ballots are finally counted — one in the Senate and two in the Assembly.
Democrats will still hold a supermajority in both chambers, and a few more votes won’t be enough to help the GOP flex its muscle on key legislation or the state budget. But the blue-to-red flips offer a jolt of momentum to GOP lawmakers used to living in the shadow of a Democratic trifecta in Sacramento.
They could also embolden the Republican Party — and its donor base — to spend more heavily in future cycles to defend seats in the Inland Empire, Central Valley and Orange County. GOP legislative candidates made inroads despite the party being massively outspent by Democrats’ campaigns. Republican operatives said the wins speak to a broader shift in the 2024 election: Republicans and President-elect Donald Trump did better in California in large part due to stronger support among Latino and working-class voters — a microcosm of the national trend that fueled Trump’s return to power. “It’s really working-class people that are moving to the GOP, and Hispanics are a subset of that. They just don’t like the woke,” said Duane Dichiara, a Republican consultant who worked on several battleground Assembly races in Southern California. IMPERIAL COUNTY: One of the biggest blows to Democrats in the Assembly was the loss of an open Imperial County seat held by Assemblymember Eduardo Garcia, who opted not to run for reelection. The Latino-majority district, in the far southeastern corner of California along the Arizona and Mexico border, has long been a Democratic stronghold. Republican Jeff Gonzalez, a former Marine, defeated Democrat Jose Acuña Jr. by hammering Democrats over the state’s high cost of living and crime rates. INLAND EMPIRE: Republicans are also poised to pick up another open Assembly seat in a Latino-majority Riverside County district — one that Democrats were initially expected to win. Republican Leticia Castillo, a family therapist, leads Democrat Clarissa Cervantes by 496 votes. Cervantes’ campaign to succeed her sister, Sabrina Cervantes — who just won her state Senate bid — was derailed by news of two DUI arrests. Castillo also tapped into voters’ frustrations with crime and the cost of living. WHERE DEMS HELD GROUND: There were some bright spots for Democrats in the Assembly. Incumbents Pilar Schiavo and Esmeralda Soria won reelection in two battleground districts — Schiavo in Santa Clarita and Soria in the Central Valley. They also succeeded in holding a suburban San Diego County seat, where Darshana Patel won a tight race to succeed termed-out Assemblymember Brian Maienschein. That said, the party spent heavily and fell short in its efforts to defeat Republican Assemblymembers Greg Wallis (Inland Empire) and Laurie Davies (Orange County). Elizabeth Ashford, a political consultant to Assembly Speaker Robert Rivas and the Democratic Caucus, said the caucus succeeded in its primary goal of defending incumbents in vulnerable districts. “When it’s all said and done, in a tough year for Democrats nationally, I think that we’re a success story,” Ashford told Playbook. ORANGE COUNTY: Democrats in the state Senate, meanwhile, are bracing for a major hit: Incumbent Josh Newman is expected to lose to Republican Steven Choi, a conservative former state assemblymember. The race hasn’t been called, but Choi leads by nearly 7,000 votes. Senate President Pro Tem Mike McGuire had said reelecting Newman was his caucus’ “number one priority” for the cycle. The caucus also spent heavily on targeting Republican Sen. Rosilicie Ochoa Bogh and an open seat in the Santa Clarita area — losing both races. GOOD MORNING. Happy Wednesday. Thanks for waking up with Playbook. You can text us at 916-562-0685 — save it as “CA Playbook” in your contacts. Or drop us a line at dgardiner@politico.com and tkatzenberger@politico.com, or on X — @DustinGardiner and @TylerKatzen. WHERE’S GAVIN? Nothing official announced.
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