Main Event. Hi everyone. This month, Nvidia became the most valuable company in history, hitting a market value of $3.6 trillion. The milestone just increases investors’ anticipation for the company’s earnings report due out after the market close today. Barron's will have real-time coverage of the results here.
Here are the six things to focus on as the numbers arrive:
Wall Street's high expectations. Analysts expect Nvidia to report October quarter revenue of $33.2 billion, up 83% year over year, with adjusted earnings per share of 75 cents. Nvidia’s outlook for the current quarter will also be closely watched. The Street currently estimates January quarter revenue of $37.1 billion with earnings per share of 82 cents.
Blackwell supply. Details about the production ramp of Nvidia’s new graphics processing unit architecture, Blackwell, is even more important than near-term financial guidance. Nvidia has already stated demand isn’t an issue, with Blackwell GPU products “booked out 12 months.” That suggests that customers putting in a new orders today won’t receive the product
until late next year. The main question is what level of supply Nvidia will be able to produce in 2025.
Data center supremacy. Competitors like Advanced Micro Devices and Intel haven’t been able to match Nvidia’s all-in-one data center solutions, which includes networking, software, hardware, and chips. Every large tech company wants the GB200 NVL72 AI system, an AI server with 72 Blackwell GPUs
that enables training larger and more capable AI models. Additional information on how Nvidia is expanding its data center leadership is important, including whether it comes from new product innovations or partnerships.
Trump chip policy. The Trump administration may implement new AI and trade policies. Trump’s proposed tariffs on foreign-made goods could affect Nvidia’s Asia-made products. Investors would like to hear how Nvidia could address that threat and lower the impact of tariffs. On the positive side, Trump could potentially relax restrictions on advanced AI chip exports to the Middle East, benefiting Nvidia’s growth.
Nuclear energy. On top of chip supply, access to electricity could constrain AI growth and Nvidia’s revenue potential. AI data centers need reliable 24/7 energy, making nuclear the perfect match. In September, CEO Jensen Huang said nuclear would play a “vital, integral” part in powering AI’s future. Insight on nuclear deregulation or plant construction would interest investors.
The Big Picture: It’s paramount to maintain a long-term view on Nvidia and look beyond day-to-day stock volatility. As a high-growth stock, large moves are to be expected. Short-term production delays don’t matter much over time.
Focus on two key areas in Nvidia’s fundamentals: its competitive position and the prospect for strong revenue growth over the next 12 months. As long as Nvidia performs well in both areas, the stock will rise.
Write to me at tae.kim@barrons.com or follow me on X at @firstadopter.
