| The war between Russia and Ukraine is escalating, to the point where some national security experts are concerned it could lead to a global world war. This comes right as President-elect Donald Trump prepares to get into office and hasn’t been enthusiastic about giving much support to Ukraine. Rather than continue to arm the nation, he’s said he would try to end the war altogether. But to mainstream national security experts and mainstream Republicans, a weakened or even fallen Ukraine could weaken U.S. power abroad and the democratic system. “Without us, lots of Ukrainians are going to die,” said Max Bergmann, a Europe and Russia expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, “and Ukrainian democracy might fall.” Here’s what’s going on in Ukraine and how it relates to U.S. politics. Why things are escalating in Ukraine right now Russia invaded Ukraine nearly three years ago, and it’s been a slog of a war ever since. Russia takes some Ukrainian territory, and Ukraine tries to take it back. But things recently got more dire for Ukraine — which has suffered heavy losses — as Russian’s army — which has also suffered heavy losses — brought in North Koreans to fight. As Russian forces advanced in Ukraine this fall, President Joe Biden approved giving Ukrainians a specific type of land mine (yes, land mines, which can pose a serious threat to civilians decades after a conflict ends). And the United States authorized Ukraine to use a powerful missile system that can fire into Russia. These are all things Ukraine has been asking for a while, but Biden has been cautious about not crossing what he calls “red lines” that could lead to actual war between the United States and Russia. “This is using big-deal missiles to strike into Russian territory,” said Bergmann, with CSIS. Ukraine pretty immediately fired the U.S.-supplied missiles into Russia, striking an arms depot. Now there are fears that Russia could retaliate by attacking Ukraine’s crowded capital, Kyiv. The United States on Wednesday closed its embassy in Kyiv and warned employees to shelter in place in case of a “significant air attack.” “Biden recognizes that Kyiv is under stress and is now moving to buck them up,” said Peter Rough, Europe and Eurasia director at the right-leaning Hudson Institute, “albeit probably too little, too late.” Bergmann said the Biden administration probably waited until after the election to approve the weapons so as to not make it look like there was more chaos abroad under the Biden administration — and to make it harder for Trump to undo it. The cases for and against arming Ukraine The United States has spent billions of dollars — and will probably have to continue to spend that — to help keep Ukraine from falling to Russia. To nationalists such as Trump, that’s a waste of money that should be spent at home. This summer, Trump called Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky the “greatest salesman ever.” In July, Trump said, “I would tell Zelensky, no more — you got to make a deal.” While it’s risky to antagonize Russia (as this week is showing), a number of hawkish national security experts see arming Ukraine — when done carefully and at a distance — as a win-win for the United States. They say it revs up the U.S. defense industry here, creating jobs and building enough weapons should the United States ever need to actually go to war with a superpower. “We are not at war with them; no Americans are dying, and we are essentially paying people in Ohio and Pennsylvania to produce ammunition to kill Russians,” Bergmann said. “And we are killing lots of Russians, our predominant adversary over the last 100 years, at very little cost to the U.S.” And it’s the right thing to do to counter influence from Russia and China, experts say. “It’s too much to say that everything depends on Ukraine — if it did, we’d be fighting there,” Rough said, “but I do think the war is shaping everyone’s perceptions of American power and the durability of the American-built system.” Trump’s options in Ukraine: Fight or try to end the war Trump says he wants to end the war in Ukraine, but he hasn’t shared how. Plus, analysts are skeptical that Russia would go for a truce. Another option: Trump could keep helping Ukraine fight Russia. That might be the easier path for him, analysts say, since Ukraine could fall in a really messy way — not unlike when the Biden administration ended the long-running war in Afghanistan. And Ukraine falling could come with potentially more damaging effects for the United States abroad. “We should stop pretending Russia is our friend and can be brought to our side,” Bergmann said. To keep propping up Ukraine also means that Trump will also have to eventually get Congress to approve more money for Ukraine, something most analysts think he’s very unlikely to do But things in Ukraine are getting complicated and more dangerous, practically by the week. “It is hard to escape the conclusion that the war in Ukraine constitutes anything other than the opening phase of World War III,” Rough said. “Iranian drones are fired over the heads of North Korean and Russian troops who are outfitted by Chinese dual-use items. This war already has global dimensions.” | 
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