Good evening from Baku. There are some people who believe that if no one is happy, it’s usually a sign of a good compromise. That certainly doesn’t apply here. We’re still far from a final deal in Azerbaijan with nations divided on money and mitigation. You can catch up with all of our COP29 coverage — which is free — on Bloomberg.com.

By Akshat Rathi

It’s the final stretch at COP29. Early morning the Azerbaijani presidency shared draft texts that are likely to form part of the final deal. This meant instead of eating mangal salad and pita, I was like the rest of us here digesting arcane legal text for breakfast. 

Then came the reactions from diplomats. Summed up in one word? Anger. The most important text, on finance, presented two extreme positions as the only options. Still, there was an acknowledgement that the deal is likely to be at least $1 trillion each year, which would be a major upgrade from the current $100 billion annually.

With so much on the line for all involved, it was time to get the strong opinions out in public in one go: a five-hour marathon plenary meeting saw grievances aired from more than 60 countries. Rich nations, especially, brought up reaffirming the UAE consensus of COP28 again and again. That deal saw countries commit to triple renewable energy, double energy efficiency and transition away from fossil fuels.

The logic is that any finance commitment from rich countries needs to come with a promise from all nations that they will work to cut planet-warming emissions. Reasonable, right? Not so, according to Saudi Arabia’s Albara Tawfiq. “The Arab Group will not accept any text that targets specific sectors, including fossil fuels,” he said at the plenary.

That sets up a fight, which will have to be resolved if there is to be a deal in Baku. Without a deal, it won't just be a failure of COP29, but also of COP28 and sets COP30 for a failure too, said Susana Muhamad, Colombia’s environment minister. “It would be a big step back,” she added.

COP28 was a stocktake that showed how far off countries were from their climate goals, and they committed to transition away from fossil fuels to get back on track. COP29 is supposed to get the finance to fund those steps that make it possible for all countries to reach climate goals and adapt to the warming already caused. And COP30 is where, empowered with the funds, countries come with more ambitious climate plans. It's why the three COP presidencies created a troika.

A failure at COP29 could mean what happened in Dubai remains in Dubai, and the world suffers worse climate catastrophes.

Remember Alterra? The landmark fund launched by the United Arab Emirates a year ago has managed to spend just a small fraction of its cash, as it tries to find deals suited to its mandate of investing in the energy transition. The UAE unveiled plans last December to put $30 billion into the new fund with a goal of mobilizing $250 billion by the end of the decade. So far, Alterra has committed $6.5 billion to seven strategies managed by BlackRock Inc., Brookfield Asset Management Ltd. and TPG Inc. Actual funds spent, however, are significantly lower than that, according to its chief executive officer.

Mexico is working to have a net-zero economy by 2050. It marks a fresh bid by the country to more aggressively confront climate change under a new president that has prioritized the issue. Mexico’s announcement on Thursday came alongside vows by the European Union, Canada and other countries to set 2035 climate targets that require steep reductions in planet-warming pollution to hit net zero goals by mid-century. The united show of force at the UN’s COP29 climate summit in Azerbaijan is part of a building pressure campaign meant to prod major-emitting nations to step up their own ambition.

Missed our climate podcast with Exxon CEO? Don’t worry. You can now read an epic annotated transcript. Bloomberg Green reporters provide you the context and commentary that's necessary when the leader of one of the world's largest oil company sets out to rebrand as a climate capitalist.

At COP29 in Baku, Akshat Rathi is joined on stage at Bloomberg Green’s live event by Ali Zaidi, the White House national climate advisor. Zaidi argues that it would be “economic malpractice” for the Trump administration to abandon the energy transition. Plus, veteran climate diplomat Jonathan Pershing explains why he believes global competition will result in an “acceleration of action” on green policy. Listen now, and subscribe on Apple,  Spotify, or YouTube to get new episodes of Zero every Thursday.

With all the waves the draft deal text made this morning, it would have been easy to miss it was Ocean day at COP29. As we reported this morning, the ocean is the world’s largest carbon sink, but it gets very little attention at UN climate talks. Anyone who popped by Portugal’s pavilion over the past week, however, would have been able to see how much the country is keen to promote its surf breaks. 

An attendee stands on a surfboard while wearing a virtual reality headset at Portugal’s pavilion. Photographer: Hollie Adams/Bloomberg