The London Rush
Consumer confidence rises post-budget

Morning, I’m Louise Moon from Bloomberg UK’s breaking news team, bringing you up to speed on today’s top business stories.

Brits have taken the advice of a certain global mega star and decided to shake it off – budget anxiety, that is. 

A trio of data this morning painted a picture of how Labour’s messaging and measures shaped consumer confidence in autumn, and where things may head in the chillier months.

Shoppers held back on spending in October, particularly on clothing, causing retail sales to fall more than expected. Three months of growth turned on its head as Rachel Reeves’ warnings of tax rises and spending cuts superseded better incomes and cooler inflation.

Step into November, however, and consumer confidence rose. We’ve largely moved on from worrying about the budget and US election, according to GfK, and are more positive about our finances and the economy. In line with that, major retail bosses have told Bloomberg in recent weeks they are optimistic about Christmas sales.

A word of caution: in true British fashion, there is still an element of gloom. Confidence remains lower than it was before August, due to a lack of clear feel-good impetus. 

Plus, it’ll be a tough winter for some. The energy price cap is set to rise in January, as the cold bites. It’ll be the first time since the height of the energy crisis that bills will rise for two straight periods.

Maybe time to turn the thermostat down a notch.

What’s your take? Ping me on X, LinkedIn or drop me an email at lmoon13@bloomberg.net. Oh, and do subscribe to Bloomberg.com for unlimited access to trusted business journalism on the UK, and beyond.

What We’re Watching

Flexible office operator Workspace expects a “limited” impact from the budget, but says it may take some time for broader market sentiment to adjust. Its net rental income and pretax profit missed expectations in the first-half after some disposals.

Warhammer maker Games Workshop says trading is ahead of expectations. It thinks first half pretax profit will be at least £120 million, compared with just over £95 million in the same period last year. Shares rose 8.7%, and are now up nearly 30% since the start of the year.

Two potential takeovers have been given more time to make solid offers. General Atlantic’s negotiations with Learning Technologies needs a bit more time, so the private equity house now has until Dec. 6 to make an offer, while ABC Technologies has been granted another week to Nov. 29 in its bid for TI Fluid.

Global Catch Up

Markets Today: School’s Not Out for October

Here’s your daily snap analysis from Bloomberg UK’s Markets Today blog:

Today’s disappointing retail sales data comes with a major caveat thanks to the timing. 

It covers the period from the end of September to 26 October — yes, that means it accounts for a stretch of pre-budget jitters and not a reaction to the actual package itself — but it also doesn’t include the autumn school half term, which usually boost October’s figures. Notably, the biggest sales drop was in clothing and other non-food store areas.

Of course, the impact of those half-term shopping trips should transfer to November’s retail sales figures. And with ‘Black Friday’ deals aplenty and Christmas getting into swing, there seem to be several factors which could make next month’s report a lot more positive. Not to mention, the weather (freezing, isn’t it), which will no doubt have some reaching for the new season’s coats, knits and scarves this week.

Morwenna Coniam

Check Bloomberg UK’s Markets Today blog for updates all day.

What’s Next

Company earnings trickle on next week.

On the retail front is lockdown-winner Pets At Home, B&Q owner KingfisherHalfords, Dr Martens and pork producer Cranswick. In the finance corner, we have Peel Hunt and Virgin Money. Others to watch include budget airline easyJet, pint provider Mitchells & Butlers, Intertek and Pennon

$ports Report

Hi, I’m David. I cover the money behind sport — and club football returns this weekend after a break for international matches (yes!)

But before a ball has even been kicked, the English Premier League is hosting a crucial off-the-field encounter today, likely to have more far-reaching consequences than any skirmishes on the pitch.

England's top 20 clubs will meet to vote on new sponsorship rules, known as Associated Party Transactions — deals between clubs and parties linked to their owners. The new set of rules, which address a recent legal case, are aggressively opposed by Manchester City, the UAE-backed champions.

On City’s side is Aston Villa. Its wealthy backers Nassef Sawiris and Wes Edens have taken to the European Champions League for the first time and, like Newcastle United, are vying to break into the Premier League’s top tier of clubs (anecdotally consisting of Manchester United, Manchester City, Arsenal, Tottenham Hotspur, Liverpool and Chelsea).

Aston Villa manager Unai Emery (left) and owner Wes Edens. Credit: Alamy

Villa has previously voiced concerns over the League’s profitability and sustainability rules, which it claims holds them back. In a statement this week, the club said it wants a vote in 90 days on amended terms that could more likely secure all teams’ unanimous support.

Other teams with fewer resources have told Bloomberg they think the League will be finished if it cannot agree to some form of spending restrictions, that limit the ambitions of those with deeper pockets.

For the rules to be voted down, however, City needs the support of five more clubs, or two thirds of the total if some abstain. Let’s see how things pan out today.

— David Hellier

For more on the Business of Sport, check out the team’s Friday newsletter.

Pub Quiz

Sue, Matt & Phil Live! is touring the UK next year, in a reunion of a famous sporting trio that graced TV screens every Friday night for years. Which game show did they present?

[Yesterday’s answer: Jaguar is the British car brand that sparked much ire after a new advert with bold colours and slogans, but no cars. It unveiled a rebrand in the shift to electric, as well as a fresh logo.]

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