That leaves the U.S. Core Personal Consumption Expenditures - the Fed's preferred gauge of inflation - as the one last hurdle before the usually quiet Christmas time. With upside risks to inflation back on the Fed's radar, the outcome could have an outsized impact on markets.
Hence the caution in Asia. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan hit a fresh three-month low on Friday. Nasdaq futures fell 0.7%, while EUROSTOXX 50 futures were 1% lower.
Investors are also alarmed a little that even Republicans are not a fan of Trump's big spending plans, with the U.S. government facing a potential shutdown on Saturday if no action is taken.
For the core PCE, forecasts are centred on a monthly rise of 0.2% in November. It will probably take a flat number to calm things a bit while an increase of 0.3% or more could cast doubt on any policy easing from the Fed next year.
Futures imply just 37 basis points of U.S. rate cuts in 2025, equivalent to less than two cuts, to a terminal rate of 3.9%, much higher than just a few months ago.
That outlook took a heavy toll on the Treasury market, which is headed for the fourth straight year of losses. The benchmark 10-year yields jumped 40 bps over the past two weeks to cross a key level of 4.5% for the first time since May.
