By Nick Taylor-Vaisey and Mickey Djuric

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Happy Friday, let’s get to it:

→ Leaks, gossip and Cabinet shuffle calculations.

→ Canada’s ambassador on the state of play.

→ The PM’s disappearing act.

OVER AND OUT — Your Ottawa Playbook crew is getting ready to sign off for the year.

But first, watch for our special post-shuffle edition on Saturday morning.

And then almost for certain it will be time for a long winter’s nap.

Thanks for making this newsletter part of your early-morning routine. We are chuffed to be part of this community of Hill insiders, politics junkies and casual observers. We read every email, text and DM. If you have ideas, suggestions or tips for us, drop us a line.

See you tomorrow — and then again bright and early Jan. 6.

— SUE ALLAN, MIKE BLANCHFIELD, MICKEY DJURIC, ZI-ANN LUM, WILLA PLANK and NICK TAYLOR-VAISEY.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau will shuffle his Cabinet at 11:30 a.m. | AP

THIS IS TRUDEAU'S LAST SHUFFLE — Well, probably.

One hundred and fifty-five days have elapsed since SEAMUS O'REGAN stepped down from Cabinet, launching months of speculation that JUSTIN TRUDEAU would shake up his front bench. The consensus around town now? It's way past due.

— Let us count the ways: An election year is coming. Trump 2.0 edges closer. And Cabinet workloads have ballooned for ministers covering for recent resignations.

ANITA ANAND, GINETTE PETITPAS TAYLOR and DOMINIC LEBLANC will go to sleep tonight with lighter workloads — or at least fewer titles.

— Now it's on: At 11:30 a.m., swearings-in are scheduled to get underway at Rideau Hall.

Here's what we know about who's in, who's out and who's swapping jobs:

Toronto MP NATE ERSKINE-SMITH and Ottawa MP DAVID MCGUINTY are both widely reported to be taking on Cabinet gigs: Erskine-Smith to housing and McGuinty to public safety.

The Hill Times reported Thursday that Anand, MARC MILLER and STEVEN MACKINNON are in line for new posts. ABBAS RANA's sources said "about 12" Liberals are involved. Also on Rana's list of new Cabmins: TERRY DUGUID, RACHEL BENDAYAN, DARREN FISHER.

— Live tracker: Procurement Minister JEAN-YVES DUCLOS' d-comm, GUILLAUME BERTRAND, made it easier for reporters to track his boss's whereabouts.

— The broader context: The Globe and Mail reported Thursday that Trudeau has been considering calling it quits this week, but "close confidants have walked away from these conversations with starkly different conclusions about where he stands."

— Fishbowl's latest: CTV News reported on the abject surprise in the Prime Minister's Office at CHRYSTIA FREELAND's shock resignation as finance minister and DPM on Monday.

The network reported on weekend texts that gave the PMO confidence that Freeland would accept a different Cabinet role.

— New balance: Trudeau will unveil a gender-balanced Cabinet. Anything less would be eye-popping, particularly following his double-down on parity at the recent Equal Voice gala.

But this isn't 2015.

— For starters: Liberal MPs are subtweeting. “Politics 101. Not one Canadian or MP that wants a change in leadership will change their mind because of a cabinet shuffle,” ANTHONY HOUSEFATHER observed on X — a message reshared by MP YVAN BAKER.

While some aspiring MPs still can't wait for the call to serve, other potential recruits might be skittish about joining Cabinet at this stage in the government's life — and in Trudeau's trajectory as PM and party leader.

For instance, New Brunswick's Cabinet representation likely won't change.

— Math time: Since O'Regan's summertime departure, eight more ministers have either quit Cabinet or announced they don’t plan to run again. (We'll see today if that number grows.)

→ Province count: British Columbia (1), Alberta (1), Manitoba (1), Ontario (2), Quebec (2), Nova Scotia (1), Newfoundland and Labrador (1).

→ Gender count: Women (4), Men (5).

— 2025 bonus: If the government survives until G7 ministerial season, a handful of ministers will play host to international counterparts.

— Anxious staff: Hundreds of political aides are preparing for weeks of uncertainty as their bosses exit the front bench or swap jobs. Some will head to a new ministry. Others will offer continuity for incoming ministers. Others won't be hired back.

Many could opt for severance packages that vary based on years of service on the Hill.

— HR puzzle: When minority governments enter uncertain periods, chiefs of staff struggle to find savvy operators to accept jobs on the Hill. The relative calm of the Liberal-NDP deal created uncommon stability. But we've entered a new chapter.

Luring senior staffers is more difficult. Important job vacancies could linger. The median age of a director-level staffer, and their typical depth of political experience, drops month by month. Staffers might enjoy "title inflation" — adding strategic or special to their business cards.

DAY ONE — Because the transition can be disorienting, Playbook crowdsourced some advice for newbies:

→ Ask your new driver to take the long way to your office. Use that time to call key stakeholders. Make clear you're calling fresh from your swearing-in — even before you've had time to settle at your desk. Call local supporters who played a role in your walk into Rideau Hall.

→ Summon your deputy minister for a briefing. Expect binders. Get a handle on "hot issues" about to cross your desk.

→ Meet your ministerial staff team. The holidays are coming, so a hybrid call would be a welcome gesture for aides on the way home to family.

→ Think hard about your choice of chief of staff. Your preference can carry weight. MARCI SURKES, Trudeau's former point-person on Cabinet affairs, says the PM's team "tries to match the chiefs with ministers. But in many cases, if the minister insists on someone, PMO usually relents."

→ Get used to cameras. You're about to make your first impression with reporters — and their readers, listeners and viewers. Prepare to be unnerved.

→ Make a dinner reservation. Celebrate with friends and family. (They're about to see less of you.)

You read POLITICO for trusted reporting. Now follow every twist of the lame duck session with Inside Congress. We track the committee meetings, hallway conversations, and leadership signals that show where crucial year-end deals are heading. Subscribe now.

— Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU will be at Rideau Hall for the swearing-in of his refreshed Cabinet. The shuffle is scheduled for 11:30 a.m. Trudeau will chair a Cabinet meeting at 3 p.m.

— Playbook hasn't seen itineraries for Bloc Leader YVES-FRANÇOIS BLANCHET, NDP Leader JAGMEET SINGH or Conservative Leader PIERRE POILIEVRE.

— Green Leader ELIZABETH MAY has no public events on her schedule.

"It's pretty traditional in our system to sort of rearrange the bench right before, you know, in the months leading into an election," Ambassador Kirsten Hillman said Thursday. | AP

AMBO TIME — Playbook's “Deep Dive” pod just interviewed KIRSTEN HILLMAN, Canada’s ambassador in Washington, about uncertainty in Ottawa. Host EUGENE DANIELS also quizzed Hillman about prepping for Trump 2.0, and on how provincial premiers are flooding the zone with cross-border advocacy.

Two quotes that jumped out at us:

— On today's shuffle: "We had our finance minister step out of Cabinet, resigning earlier this week. And there were already a few other Cabinet positions that had come vacant. So the shuffle is necessary and expected because some of those positions have to be filled.

"It may be bigger than expected because of folks stepping aside. But I do think that it is something to be expected in the months leading into an election. Our government will go into an election at the latest next fall — could be earlier, but at the latest next fall. And it's pretty traditional in our system to sort of rearrange the bench right before, you know, in the months leading into an election."

— On the preems: "Those premiers who are talking about things that fall not exclusively, but partly in their areas of jurisdiction is to be expected. And I think that they feel that they have important voices to bring to the American people, and I support that. I really do.

"I think it was CONDOLEEZZA RICE who coined the phrase that Canada U.S. relations is more about "condo issues" than anything else, because we … have this common territory. The border and our electricity grid, and our electricity relationship, those are both condo issues.

GHOSTING THE GALLERY — Year-end interviews are a tradition for Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU.

Not now though. Since CHRYSTIA FREELAND’s exit, Trudeau’s office has canceled sit downs with major networks. The Canadian Press was denied its traditional December interview, as were other outlets, including POLITICO (again).

— It’s actually nothing new. During the past year, the PM stopped speaking regularly to Hill reporters camped outside the House and caucus and Cabinet rooms — catching Trudeau on his way in and out.

Here is some unofficial Playbook analysis to give you a sense of the PM's disappearing act:

2024: PMJT answered 20 questions

2023: 209 questions.

2022: The number of questions Trudeau fielded was 169.

Since his party began tanking in the polls last year, the Prime Minister’s Office (which wants more control) has tried to put more distance between the PM and the Parliamentary Press Gallery (which wants more access).

Only a handful of press conferences were held in Ottawa this year as opposed to other parts of the country where the PM may take questions from local journalists, who sometimes don’t follow federal issues as closely. And he’s ramped up photo-ops, where media questions are ignored, or not even invited.

— Eating his words: On the campaign trail in 2015, Trudeau intervened when Liberals tried booing a reporter. “We have respect for journalists in this country,” he said while running on a promise to be transparent with the media. “They ask tough questions and they’re supposed to.”

Now that those “tough questions” involve his growing unpopularity and reputation as leader, the PM has reversed course. Ironic for a government that has introduced policies to help subsidize newsrooms and introduced laws that protect journalism as a pillar of democracy.

— Hello TikTok: The PM has shifted his focus of late to social media influencers and podcasts. During the past year … he interviewed a comedian, baked cinnamon buns, made a milkshake, talked about the WNBA, explained the difference between the French language in France and Canada, and ate spicy wings — anything that gets him in front of a camera without having to face awkward questions about his future.

Up: CHRYSTIA FREELAND, who launched a leadership bid this week without launching a leadership bid this week.

Down: Mentions of Canada’s C$61.9-billion deficit — a long-delayed reveal that was almost lost in a totally bonkers news cycle.

— Who are the taxpayers affected by capital gains reform? In a three-part series, Policy Options reports that the measure really did target the wealthiest.

— On POLITICO’s “Power Play” pod, host ANNE MCELVOY is joined by POLITICO's Global Editor-in-chief JOHN HARRIS and NICHOLAS VINOCUR, editor-at-large in POLITICO's Europe newsroom, to discuss how the world’s power brokers are gearing up for 2025.

— The Hill Times has released its “All Politics” poll: The best and worst of 2024.

— In Maclean’s, KATIE UNDERWOOD writes that political polarization is fuelling family estrangement.

Birthdays: HBD to Ambassador of Canada to Denmark CAROLYN BENNETT, Hill & Knowlton’s NEIL BRODIE and former Conservative MP BRUCE STANTON.

While we’re away: Dec. 21: KAT CUPLINSKAS, spokesperson for CHRYSTIA FREELAND, the Globe’s JOSH O’KANE. Dec. 23: ELIZABETH THOMPSON of CBC News. Dec. 24: MARC ROY of Sandstone Group is 50. Dec. 25: JUSTIN TRUDEAU and SACHA TRUDEAU … Boxing Day: Liberal MP EMMANUEL DUBOURG … Dec. 28: ROBYN OSGOOD of McMillan Vantage. Dec. 29: Liberal MP JULIE DZEROWICZ, SCOTT FESCHUK of Feschuk-Reid, MARCUS MATTINSON of the Nuclear Waste Management Organization … Dec. 30: Sen. JOSÉE VERNER and ALEX WELLSTEAD of Novartis.

Jan. 2: NDP Leader JAGMEET SINGH, VELMA MCCOLL of Earnscliffe Strategies and CATHARINE TUNNEY of CBC News. Jan. 3: DWIGHT DUNCAN of Bernstein Litowitz Berger & Grossmann, retired Sen. THANH HAI NGO, Liberal MP SONIA SIDHU, former NDP MP FRANÇOIS CHOQUETTE. Jan. 4: EMILY THORNE of Crestview Strategy and former MP YASMIN RATANSI.

Got a document to share? A birthday coming up? Send deets.

Movers and shakers: ALLISTER SURETTE (a former Nova Scotia Liberal MLA) and NANCY KARETAK-LINDELL (a former Liberal MP) have been appointed to the Senate.

Spotted: MARK CARNEY, at the National Arts Centre on Thursday for Handel’s Messiah … Conservative MP ED FAST, guesting on ERIN O'TOOLE's "Blue Skies" pod.

"Chrystia," the new biography of CHRYSTIA FREELAND by CATHERINE TSALIKIS, available for purchase. Note: This isn't an authorized biography. (The Walrus adapted part of the book in a post published following Freeland's Monday resignation.)

Among the governor general’s appointments to the Order of Canada this week: Retired Gen. WALTER JOHN NATYNCZYK, JEAN-PIERRE KINGSLEY and GUY SAINT-JACQUES.

Also this week: A power couple moment. MAUREEN BOYD, a former senior political staffer and current affairs reporter, and chair emerita of the Parliamentary Centre, was appointed to the Order of Canada. Her husband, longtime former diplomat COLIN ROBERTSON, received the Coronation Medal of King Charles III in recognition of his "service and outstanding contribution to the community, to Ontario and to Canada."

Media mentions: L. MANUEL BAECHLIN is joining The Narwhal as a video producer. … AISLING MURPHY will be the Globe’s theater reporter starting next month.

POLITICO Pro's unique analysis combines exclusive transition intelligence and data visualization to help you understand not just what's changing, but why it matters for your organization. Explore how POLITICO Pro will make a difference for you.

Finance Minister Dominic LeBlanc says he has some meetings lined up with Trump's team. | Alex Brandon/AP

For POLITICO Pro subscribers, our latest policy newsletter by MIKE BLANCHFIELD and NICK TAYLOR-VAISEY: Talking to Trump's team.

From Pro's DOUG PALMER this morning: Fact checking HOWARD LUTNICK.

In other Pro headlines:

— Pentagon report: China to build 1,000 nukes by 2030.

— Supreme Court will take up TikTok’s bid to avoid US ban.

— Graphite producers ask feds to probe China mineral dumping.

— Biden makes a last big push to keep Trump from killing the electric car.

— Montana Supreme Court delivers ‘monumental’ win to climate activists.

Thursday’s answer: HOMER SIMPSON once referred to Canada as America Junior.

Props to GORDON RANDALL, JOHN ECKER, MARK AGNEW, DOUG RICE, DARREN MAJOR, MALCOLM MCKAY, MARC LEBLANC, ROBERT MCDOUGALL, CAMERON PENNER and PEADAR Ó LAMHNA.

Props also to MAX FINEDAY, who recalled another scene when Homer called Canada "our goody two-shoes brother."

Friday’s question: Who read “Charlie and the Great Glass Elevator” at her table during a state dinner held in honor of PIERRE TRUDEAU?

Answer to ottawaplaybook@politico.com

Think you have a harder question? Send it our way!

In case you need it: The SO31. | Photo courtesy of Bruce Deachman

We went back to the Ottawa Playbook archives for this recipe — concocted to accompany virtual trivia during our isolation days — something with which to toast the know-it-alls who always read to the bottom of our newsletter.

THE SO31

2 oz. bourbon

1/2 oz. maple syrup

1/2 oz. orange juice

1/4 oz. lemon juice

4 dashes Angostura bitters

Dried sugared orange slice, for garnish