By Rachael Bade and Eugene Daniels

With help from Eli Okun, Garrett Ross and Bethany Irvine

A FUN ONE — “The Worst Political Predictions of 2024,” by Zack Stanton, featuring predictions from ROB REINER, ARI FLEISCHER, President JOE BIDEN’s advisers, SCOTT ADAMS, SCOTT GALLOWAY, GEORGE CONWAY and @CATTURD2, among many more.

Speaker Mike Johnson and Donald Trump have been seriously contemplating whether it’s best to simply allow a shutdown to happen. | Wilfredo Lee/AP

THE ART OF NO DEAL — The second Trump administration has not even begun, and President-elect DONALD TRUMP and Speaker MIKE JOHNSON are staring down what could be its first make-or-break moment.

After the Trump-blessed continuing resolution/debt ceiling package failed yesterday with an embarrassingly high 38 House Republicans voting against the proposal, Johnson spent last night racking his brain for a Plan C to fund the government before funding runs out at midnight tonight. His challenge: Find a path that can (1) keep Trump happy, (2) placate House conservatives, (3) win the support of a substantial number of House Democrats, (4) pass muster with the Democratic-controlled Senate and White House — oh, and (5) allow him to keep his gavel.

The conventional wisdom in Washington is that everybody wants to go home for the holidays and that shutdowns are political losers.

But Johnson and Trump have been seriously contemplating whether it’s best to simply allow a shutdown to happen. We're told that both men’s teams spent last night weighing what they view as the positives and negatives.

To be clear: Johnson's crew was still trying to find a way out last night. We heard talk about a whole host of ideas, including passing a "clean" CR into January to buy a little time.

But still, it’s quite a turn from just a few months ago, when Johnson almost single-handedly talked Trump off the shutdown ledge. Back then, Johnson presented Trump with polling showing that Republicans in swing districts would pay the price politically — even using numbers from a Trump pollster to underline his point.

But this time is different, people close to Johnson tell Playbook.

THE CASE FOR SHUTDOWN: For one, it’s not right before an election — meaning any lawmakers who take hits from a prospective shutdown would have time to recover before campaign season, or so the thinking goes. Plus, some Republicans feel they have a mandate to govern and could potentially weather the storm better than previous shutdown fights.

Right or wrong, there also seems to be a belief among some people close to Trump that some sort of debt ceiling disaster is around the corner and thus this needs to be dealt with now.

Behind that thinking is a fear that Democrats are so eager to trip up Trump, that when the debt ceiling next needs to be raised, they’ll demand the GOP make politically impossible concessions. Republicans will then either cave to Dems’ demands, or they’ll cause a breach of the debt ceiling, precipitating an economic catastrophe in Trump’s first year back in office.

Under this logic, these Trump world figures argue, it's better to face a shutdown now to try to resolve the issue. Trump himself heightened his demand overnight: “Congress must get rid of, or extend out to, perhaps, 2029, the ridiculous Debt Ceiling. Without this, we should never make a deal.”

REALITY CHECK: As for the political arguments against it — gosh, where do we even start?

In every single shutdown we can remember, the party that makes the demands not only pays politically, but never gets what it wants. Never.

Trump didn't get a dollar for his wall during the 35-day shutdown in 2018-2019, and he paid a political price for it. Democrats didn't get protections for Dreamers during the shutdown fight they stoked when Trump was in office, either.

So what makes Republicans think that once in a shutdown, that Democrats will give them what they want and that the GOP won't get politically crushed?

Top Republicans like VP-elect JD VANCE are already trying to message that Democrats will own this shutdown — if it happens: “They’ve asked for a shutdown and I think that's exactly what they're going to get," he told reporters yesterday.

THE OFF RAMP: Trump's team isn’t stupid. They know it’ll be an uphill battle to convince the public that a shutdown is the Democrats’ fault. Trump picked the fight, and it was Trump — well, him and ELON MUSK — who sank the bipartisan deal.

Start with that as the baseline, and then add in the political damage that follows: There will inevitably be headlines about the reality that a shutdown would mean that government workers — and even members of the military — won’t get paid over Christmas, as the AP reported last night.

There are political implications to that. Within Trump world, there is some worry that all of this could kneecap Trump's polling numbers, which are at an all-time high (where, of course, he'd like them to stay).

And there are policy implications, too: What would a shutdown mean for Trump’s ambitious agenda? Remember his goal to pass a border bill in the first 30 days after the inauguration? Kiss that goodbye: Republicans will be too busy trying to squeeze Democrats on the debt ceiling.

Which brings us to a final point: Even if Trump manages to land a debt ceiling hike, a shutdown over this issue all but guarantees that his first big legislative achievement is going to be increasing the nation’s borrowing limit when we're already more than $35 trillion in debt. This is not exactly a way to get Republicans excited.

But as Trump says, we'll see what happens. People close to him say he wants a fight — and if that's what he wants, Johnson just might give it to him.

Related reads: “Johnson on shaky ground with Trump after spending fiasco,” by Olivia Beavers and Jordain Carney … “With speakership on the line, Johnson is ever more reliant on Trump,” by WaPo’s Marianna Sotomayor and Paul Kane … “24 hours that exposed a schism between Trump and Johnson and sent the government hurtling toward a shutdown,” by CNN’s Eric Bradner, Sarah Ferris, Annie Grayer, Kayla Tausche, Kristen Holmes and Alayna Treene

Happy Friday. Thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line: Rachael Bade and Eugene Daniels.

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By passing federal legislation requiring app store parental consent and age verification, Congress would put parents in charge of teen app downloads. This helps parents ensure teens download apps that are safe.

That's why 3 of 4 parents agree: teens under 16 shouldn't be able to download apps without parental consent.

Tell lawmakers: support a national standard requiring app store parental consent and age verification for teens.

BIG DEAL FOR BIDEN — The White House announced that Biden will travel to Rome and Vatican City in January, including meetings with POPE FRANCIS and Italian PM GIORGIA MELONI. More from Bloomberg

STUDENT DEBT LATEST — The White House and Education Department announced this morning that they’re wiping out student debt for 55,000 more public servants, from teachers to law enforcement. More from AP’s Collin Binkley

FROM RUSSIA, WITH LOVE — Russian President VLADIMIR PUTIN said yesterday that he’s open to meeting with Trump and striking a compromise on the war in Ukraine, per Reuters’ Vladimir Soldatkin and Andrew Osborn.

TIKTOK ON THE CLOCK — FRANK McCOURT wants to buy TikTok from ByteDance to save it from a looming ban. With an existing relationship with Trump, he’s already pitched the transition team on the idea, Bloomberg’s Alexandra Levine and Kurt Wagner report.

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On the Hill

The Senate will meet at 10 a.m., with a cloture vote on a judicial nomination at 11 a.m.

The House will meet at 9 a.m.

3 things to watch …

1. The House Ethics report into former Rep. MATT GAETZ (R-Fla.) could go public any day now — but that might not be the end of the story. Gaetz has plotted his retribution — proposing to force the disclosure of “every ‘me too’ settlement paid using public funds (even of former members).” Gaetz is gone, of course, but Olivia Beavers reports that he has allies in the House who are ready to execute his plan, per a Republican briefed on the maneuver. A draft resolution would force the House Administration Committee to cough up a report on all settlements paid since 1995.
   
2. Congress already has a DOGE Caucus to support the work of Musk and VIVEK RAMASWAMY. Now meet the MAHA Caucus: Sens. ROGER MARSHALL (R-Kan.), TOMMY TUBERVILLE (R-Ala.), RICK SCOTT (R-Fla.), CYNTHIA LUMMIS (R-Wyo.) and RON JOHNSON (R-Wis.) have launched the effort to champion ROBERT F. KENNEDY JR.’s “Make America Healthy Again” agenda in the Senate, Daniel Payne reports: “The policy goals include promoting food and non-pharmaceutical interventions and encouraging agricultural practices that improve the nutritional value of food, as well as furthering efforts to research, prevent and treat chronic diseases.”
   
3. The battle over the future of TikTok is creeping back onto the Hill. Eight months after Congress forced the sale or closure of the Chinese-owned social media platform, a Jan. 19 deadline for action is looming — and lawmakers are weighing in on both sides, per Reuters’ David Shepardson. Sens. ED MARKEY (D-Mass) and RAND PAUL (R-Ky.) are asking Biden to invoke a 90-day extension, citing “the law’s uncertain future and its consequences for free expression.” The uncertainty surrounds a Supreme Court review of the law, set for oral argument on Jan. 10. Senate Minority Leader MITCH McCONNELL this week filed a brief with the court urging it to keep the law in place.

At the White House

Biden and first lady JILL BIDEN will visit Children’s National Hospital patients and their families for the holidays at 2:10 p.m.

VP KAMALA HARRIS will have staff meetings and briefings.

You read POLITICO for trusted reporting. Now follow every twist of the lame duck session with Inside Congress. We track the committee meetings, hallway conversations, and leadership signals that show where crucial year-end deals are heading. Subscribe now.

BEYOND THE BELTWAY

Border Patrol encounters with migrants on the U.S.-Mexico border fell to the lowest level of Joe Biden’s presidency in November. | Gregory Bull/AP Photo

IMMIGRATION FILES — An array of revealing new data show just how much immigration surged under Biden — and how much it has fallen this year as he and Mexico clamped down — all ahead of Trump’s expected mass deportations.

The U.S. saw immigration leap by 2.8 million people this year, in part due to a different method of counting, powering the country to 1 percent population growth overall and hitting a population of 340 million for the first time, per new Census Bureau data. It was the fastest the U.S. has grown in 23 years, AP’s Mike Schneider reports.

But at the same time, Border Patrol encounters with migrants on the U.S.-Mexico border fell to the lowest level of Biden’s presidency in November, per WaPo’s Nick Miroff. The roughly 47,000 stops were nearly 80 percent down from a year prior. ICE deportations in the most recent fiscal year leapt to a 10-year high, removing 270,000 people, AP’s Valerie Gonzalez and Elliot Spagat report. And a new lawsuit shows that ICE officials have been talking with private contractors about more beds for detention already under Biden, which could pave the way for expanded capacity under Trump, WaPo’s Maria Sacchetti reports.

More Lone Star State reads: “As landowners resist, Texas’ border wall is fragmented and built in remote areas,” by The Texas Tribune’s Zach Despart, Yuriko Schumacher and Uriel García … “Texas launches billboard campaign in Mexico to deter migrants,” by Reuters’ Ted Hesson

MEGATREND — Life expectancy in the U.S. in 2024 jumped almost a full year to 78.4 years, the CDC announced, per NBC’s Randi Richardson. The country has now nearly returned to pre-pandemic levels. In fact, from life expectancy to drug overdoses to traffic fatalities to obesity to murder, the U.S. has now notched an unusual wave of good news on all these health indicators moving in the right direction, unprecedented in this century, The Atlantic’s Derek Thompson writes.

ALL POLITICS

TURMOIL AT THE NRSC — “A MAGA power play roils Senate GOP campaign groups,” by Ally Mutnick and Holly Otterbein: “[H]iring at the National Republican Senatorial Committee and its allied GOP super PAC Senate Leadership Fund has devolved in recent weeks into bickering over whether prospective new leaders are sufficiently loyal to Trump … The latest gripe is aimed at BRENDAN JASPERS, who was just tapped as the NRSC’s political director for the 2026 midterms,” because he worked as director of campaigns at the Club for Growth.

2030 WATCH — The new annual population estimates from the Census Bureau would predict significant gains for Republicans in post-2030 reapportionment, as Texas and Florida would each gain four House seats and California would lose four, as Dave Wasserman notes. But last year’s population data actually looked even worse for Democrats, as New York and Michigan have caught up a bit.

FOR YOUR RADAR — “Top GOP pollster fired after financial mismanagement allegations,” by Daniel Lippman: “CHRIS WILSON, the founder and CEO of top Republican polling firm WPA Intelligence, was fired after company audits found he likely used firm money to pay for personal expenses … It comes after his firm’s CFO was fired and charged with embezzlement … RYAN LEONARD, a lawyer representing Wilson, called the allegations behind Wilson’s firing ‘defamatory and false.’”

MUSICAL CHAIRS — The Democratic state party chairs of Arizona, New Mexico, Oklahoma and Texas all backed KEN MARTIN, their compatriot from Minnesota, for DNC chair, ABC’s Brittany Shepherd and Nicholas Kerr report.

AMERICA AND THE WORLD

The U.S. already had a larger presence in Syria than was previously known, even before the Bashar Assad dictatorship fell. | Hussein Malla/AP Photo

ROAD TO DAMASCUS — BARBARA LEAF is heading to Syria with DANIEL RUBINSTEIN, the first time the State Department has sent officials to the country in years, as the U.S. starts to engage more with the new rebel-led government, Axios’ Barak Ravid and Colin Demarest report. Leaf is likely to meet with Hayat Tahrir al-Sham leader ABU MOHAMMED AL-GOLANI within the coming days.

And it turns out the U.S. already had a larger presence in Syria than was previously known, even before the BASHAR ASSAD dictatorship fell, per CNN’s Alex Marquardt, Jennifer Hansler and Michael Conte. A Pentagon spokesperson told reporters yesterday there are roughly 2,000 U.S. troops in the country, not 900, focused on fighting the Islamic State. CNN reports that ROGER CARSTENS, who’s leading the search for AUSTIN TICE, will join Leaf and Rubinstein, who’s taking charge of Syria outreach for the end of Biden’s presidency.

More top reads:

• Huge impact: “Trump’s Return May Worsen Financial Woes for Global Health Institutions,” by NYT’s Stephanie Nolen: “Health organizations are bracing for the likelihood that the second Trump administration will sharply reduce contributions … Currently, the United States provides about half of all aid for global health.”

• Big news for the D.C. social circuit: PETER MANDELSON, a British lord and longtime Labour official, will be tapped as British ambassador to the U.S., The Times’ Steven Swinford scooped.

MEDIAWATCH

‘SUCCESSION’ IN REAL LIFE — “Rupert Murdoch’s Appeal to Alter Family Trust Faces Uphill Battle,” by NYT’s Jim Rutenberg and Jonathan Mahler: “RUPERT MURDOCH’s attempt to change his family trust to consolidate his son LACHLAN’s leadership of his global media empire — and lock in its conservative editorial direction after his death — now depends on a long-shot move in the highly specialized Nevada probate court system.”

RISING STAR I — KYLIE KELCE newly has the No. 1 podcast on the charts, unseating JOE ROGAN as she talks about “mom stuff” and women in sports. She tells NYT’s Jessica Testa that her views “aggressively lean” left — and that she’d love to have MICHELLE OBAMA or Pennsylvania Gov. JOSH SHAPIRO on.

RISING STAR II — “Could This 20-Year-Old Be One of the Democrats’ Bro Whisperers?” by NYT’s Callie Holtermann: “DEAN WITHERS argues online with right-wing stars like CHARLIE KIRK and BEN SHAPIRO. His goal? To reach their young, male followers.”

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TRANSITION LENSES

Joint Chiefs of Staff Chair Gen. C.Q. Brown has been a top target for Donald Trump and leading MAGA voices. | Francis Chung/POLITICO

BROWN-NOSING — Did Joint Chiefs of Staff Chair Gen. C.Q. BROWN save his job at the Army-Navy game? Brown talked with Trump directly for about 20 minutes at the game in a meeting that went well and seems to have postponed any Trump plans to fire Brown quickly, NBC’s Courtney Kube and Carol Lee scooped.

Brown has been a top target for Trump and leading MAGA voices, who want to purge senior military ranks of leaders who have focused on diversity. His term is supposed to go until 2027. But sources tell NBC the men hit it off, with Brown emphasizing that he wanted to work together, and the president-elect is now “changing his tone.” Trump is also getting pressure from some GOP members of Congress and outside figures like TERRENCE J. O’SHAUGHNESSY, who’ve told Trump that Brown would be good for military stability, particularly amid the controversy around PETE HEGSETH for Defense secretary.

More top reads:

• The revenge tour: “Patel floated criminally probing police, lawmakers involved in Jan. 6 committee,” by WaPo’s JM Rieger: “In the remarks, made before his selection to be FBI director, [KASH] PATEL … accus[ed] them of providing false testimony and of destroying evidence. Those include former Trump aide CASSIDY HUTCHINSON and police officers who testified about defending the Capitol during the Jan. 6 attack. … The Post has found no evidence of false testimony or evidence destruction.”

• Who else has Trump’s ear: JEFF BEZOS dined with the president-elect Wednesday, with Musk joining, WaPo’s Marianne LeVine and Meryl Kornfield report.

POLICY CORNER

IN THE DOGE HOUSE — “DOGE vs. DEI: Republicans’ promise to purge government diversity initiatives could be wide-ranging, and hard to pull off,” by CNN’s Rene Marsh and Pamela Brown

JUDICIARY SQUARE

SCARY STUFF — A federal judge has denied pretrial release to an 18-year-old George Mason University student charged with using the internet to plot a mass shooting at the Israeli Consulate in New York, Josh Gerstein writes in. ABDULLAH HASSAN was arrested Tuesday in his Falls Church, Virginia apartment — the same day authorities say he instructed and expected an FBI informant to use an automatic weapon to carry out an attack aimed at the consulate’s lobby.

Hassan, who was born in Egypt, is currently in deportation proceedings, authorities said. A defense attorney for Hassan, CADENCE MERTZ, said he has learning issues and emphasized that many of his statements cited by prosecutors took place when he was still a minor.

SUNDAY SO FAR …

FOX “Fox News Sunday”: Sen. Markwayne Mullin (R-Okla.) … Sen. Ben Cardin (D-Md.) … Dallas Jenkins. Panel: Guy Benson, Hans Nichols, Penny Nance and Juan Williams.

MSNBC “The Weekend”: Rep. Angie Craig (D-Minn.) … Rep.-elect Laura Gillen (D-N.Y.) … acting Labor Secretary Julie Su … George Conway.

NBC “Meet the Press”: Sens. Raphael Warnock (D-Ga.) and James Lankford (R-Okla.). Panel: Doris Kearns Goodwin, Antonia Hylton and Russell Moore.