Good morning and happy Friday. This past year was eventful for Florida, beginning with two top Florida pols running for president and ending with one planning his return to the White House. Florida was the site of court deliberations over classified documents held by a former president, and a would-be assassination attempt on the same man. Its Republicans locked down the state's politically red hue in November, too. But despite the huge 2024, Florida may play an even bigger role in the national political narrative in 2025. Here are key storylines to watch next year: — Florida’s D.C. takeover: President-elect DONALD TRUMP has harvested from Florida to fill out his administration. He hasn’t even taken the oath of office yet, but the drama around many of the picks is already playing out. Former Rep. MATT GAETZ (R-Fla.) had to drop out from consideration to be attorney general following a lack of Senate support, and for a few days Gov. RON DESANTIS seemed like he would be taking on a new role — something that could stretch into the new year. There’s still plenty of Floridians headed to Washington. But seeing the personalities ascend to their Trump administration jobs is just one part of next year’s story. Another will be the extent to which Trump’s administration also pulls policies from Florida. Floridians such as Republican Sen. MARCO RUBIO for secretary of State will have outsized influence, for instance, in shaping foreign policy that’s especially crucial for Florida, whether it be on Venezuela’s disputed election or the U.S. posture toward Cuba. — How DeSantis leaves his mark on Florida: DeSantis has become one of the most powerful governors in state history and will be term limited out in just over two years. In the time he’s been in office, he has shown a knack for driving the national narrative and catching journalists off guard with surprise announcements and political stunts. A key dynamic to watch will be how DeSantis interacts with the new Legislature. His policies on Covid and plans to run for president made him a GOP superstar that left many Republican lawmakers unable or unwilling to stand up to his demands. Legislative leaders already have resisted his push to alter new condo safety laws before the end of this year, and there was a rank-and-file rebellion over his administration’s failed parks plan. Are those just blips, or a new posture that’ll play out over the course of 2025? And one of his biggest legacy-defining decisions will be selecting Rubio’s replacement in the Senate — and replacing CFO JIMMY PATRONIS, who will give up his office at the end of March as he runs for Congress. — The Trump-DeSantis relationship: The prospect of DeSantis becoming Trump’s next secretary of Defense is dwindling — but not gone entirely — as PETE HEGSETH appears to have found his footing during meetings with senators. Still, Florida’s relationship with Washington is due for an overhaul. DeSantis was able to regularly make headlines with President JOE BIDEN in the White House, given their diverging policy priorities. But with Trump, that opposition will change. Florida can still find ways to partner with the incoming administration or implement policies that would take longer — or be impossible — for a narrow-GOP majority Congress to pass. — The shaping of the 2026 governor’s race: Given that so many Floridians are headed to the Trump administration, the list of Republicans who were angling for the job to lead one of the largest states appears to be dwindling. Some candidates may begin to declare their intentions early, or at least put the word out to see how it’s being received by donors and voters. Another tell would be seeing which pols are making the pilgrimage to Mar-a-Lago. Trump would undoubtedly have a say in helping to elevate his preferred candidate — and his 2018 endorsement of DeSantis has shown just how powerful that can be in Florida. DeSantis, too, would have influence in shaping the race and is likely determined to cement his legacy here.
— How Florida’s biggest problems get addressed: The unaffordability of housing and property insurance remains one of the top concerns for state residents. It’s one that lawmakers insist they want to solve, but it’s a complicated problem that’ll take time to untangle. Yet, ignoring it risks causing an exodus from the state as people seek less-expensive alternatives. — What Democrats do about Florida. Many Democrats insisted during the 2024 election that Florida was “in play.” Instead, the results show that the GOP takeover of the state is all-but complete. Leading Democrats told Playbook in the last week that they know they have to regroup and figure out what they do next. The last four years under Biden mainly saw Florida being used by Democrats as a cautionary tale of what not to do — but if the 2024 election is any indication, it appears many voters across the U.S. are just fine with making America Florida. Have a tip, story, suggestion, birthday, anniversary, new job, or any other nugget that Playbook should look at? Get in touch at: kleonard@politico.com. PROGRAMMING NOTE: Today is our last edition for the year. We’ll be back to our normal schedule on Monday, Jan. 6, 2025.
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