Regional Impact of Assad’s Fall

What Assad’s Fall Means for Israel and Its Regional Relations
For Israel, the unexpected and precipitous fall of Assad is a simultaneous cause for cautious optimism and concern. Its own and others’ posture in the months ahead will have important implications for Israel’s regional relations and other dynamics, explains USIP’s Lucy Kurtzer-Ellenbogen.

How Assad’s Fall Could Impact Iraq
With deeply intertwined histories, Syria’s post-Assad trajectory could have major implications for Iraq. A democratizing Syria could renew democratic energy in Iraq. But if sectarianism dominates in Syria, it could rekindle similar dynamics in Iraq, says USIP’s Sarhang Hamasaeed.

After Assad’s Fall, Gulf States See Risks and Rewards in Syria
For Gulf states, regional stability is their chief concern in the aftermath of Assad’s ouster. In a best-case scenario for these countries, Syria becomes a new Sunni ally in a region once dominated by Iran, says USIP’s April Alley Longley.

Mona Yacoubian on the Regional Reverberations of Assad’s Fall
The fall of Assad is “nothing short of a tectonic shift in power” across the Middle East, with Iran emerging as “the biggest loser” and Turkey “positioned to be a big winner,” says USIP’s Mona Yacoubian. But “the situation is going to bear very close watching … the stakes in Syria aren’t just regional, they’re global.”

For more, read USIP’s recent articles on how Assad’s ouster impacts Lebanon, Iran and Russia, and what comes next.

Ukraine: The Inflection Point in the China-Russia Axis

The Ukraine conflict has catalyzed deepening China-Russia ties, and their tech cooperation has significantly advanced their information warfare capabilities. Given the West’s limited leverage, nuanced approaches are needed to find fissures in their axis, say the Institute for Security and Development Policy’s Niklas Swanström and USIP’s Andrew Scobell.

Geopolitics and Diplomacy in the Pacific

After Taiwan’s Pacific Diplomacy, China Steps Up Military Pressure
In early December, Taiwan’s new president visited three Pacific Island nations with stopovers in Hawaii and Guam. China predictably responded with military threats. USIP’s Asia experts discuss why the Pacific Islands are important to China and Taiwan and what this episode tells us about cross-Strait relations.

How the U.S. Can Strengthen Its Pacific Engagement
The past two U.S. administrations have heightened U.S. focus on the Pacific Islands, but China is often more consistent in its engagement and messaging. While the U.S. has advantages, it needs to understand that in the Pacific the manner of the engagement matters just as much as policy, says Auckland University of Technology’s Sione Tekiteki.

What Bangsamoro’s Delayed Election Means for Peace in the Southern Philippines

With elections in the autonomous Bangsamoro region likely to be pushed again, this time until 2026, the credibility of the Bangsamoro peace process cannot withstand further delays. But the current extension could give leaders time to get the endgame right, says USIP’s Haroro Ingram.

What Ghana’s Presidential Election Means for the Country and West Africa

Former President John Mahama will return to power after a decisive victory in this month’s elections. How he handles the country’s economic crisis, post-election violence and deep dissatisfaction with the political system could make or break Ghana’s democratic resilience, say USIP’s Rachel Joy Yeboah Boakye, Mehdi Bchir and Afiwa Missoh.