Looking back and looking forward are two essential traditions when any year draws to a close. French President Emmanuel Macron might wish for a third option: Looking awkwardly at the ground. Even standout events of the past 12 months — the Paris Olympics, or the reopening of Notre Dame — pale into insignificance compared with the political chaos following snap elections and spiraling public finances that are squeezing everyone from workers to pensioners to corporate leaders. Records have been broken this year, and not in a good way. France has cycled through four prime ministers in one year, a level of volatility that beats Brexit Britain’s “Year of three prime ministers” in 2022. The youngest PM in the Fifth Republic’s history, Gabriel Attal, was succeeded by the oldest, Michel Barnier, who ended up being the most transient after lasting just 91 days. And the territory of Mayotte is reeling after the most powerful storm to hit the area in nearly a century. New Premier Francois Bayrou, 73, is now scrambling to announce a government before Christmas. Even if he manages it, it’s likely France will have no budget going into 2025, a year that will see about €380 billion in debt and €40 billion in interest payments fall due. Bayrou’s survival is also contingent on offering the right concessions to a divided left-wing bloc or an energized far-right to secure their votes. This is unprecedented stuff – with all eyes on a court ruling in March that will decide whether Marine Le Pen will be banned from running in the nation’s next presidential race. Francois Bayrou, France's prime minister, speaks at the National Assembly in Paris, on Dec. 17, 2024. Photographer: Nathan Laine/Bloomberg While France’s dirigiste economy is holding up for now, with expected GDP growth of 1.1% for the full year, ongoing political gridlock risks slowing activity to a crawl as Bank of France Governor Villeroy de Galhau warns of “budgetary denial.” Retail sales slipped in November and consumer confidence has fallen from its summer Olympics high. There was only one Paris IPO this year of any meaningful size – Exosens SAS – and one big symbolic snub as Vivendi SE’s Canal+ listed in London. And in the corporate world, painful turnarounds seem to be mounting. Atos SE and Casino Guichard Perrachon have delivered spectacular value destruction with share-price falls of 96% and 99% respectively this year. Among blue-chip firms, Stellantis NV’s share slump of 42% cost the job of its hard-charging boss Carlos Tavares – potentially bringing the cult of the “cost-killer” CEO to an end. Maurice Levy, former head of Publicis, spoke for a lot of industries when he told Bloomberg Television this week: “What we do need is a clear direction...We may have some difficulties if we don't give some very strong signals to the international community of investors.” This is obviously easier said than done. There’s also the small matter of Donald Trump’s looming return to the White House and the threat of more trade tariffs on the European Union and China, which will cloud the horizon of French multinationals. Amid the past year’s regrets and the fog of the future, France still has strengths: Strong institutions, talented engineers, a nuclear-focused energy grid and European support. And the country at least still knows how to honor its heroes, from the burial in the Pantheon of writer and Resistance fighter Marc Bloch to Macron’s praise of Gisele Pelicot for her dignity and courage after her harrowing trial. But 2024 feels like a year to forget. The familiar French greeting “bon courage” – chin up – has never felt so apt. France’s debt agency kept its issuance plans for 2025 unchanged from an initial target as it awaits a new budget following the ouster of the government earlier this month. Agence France Tresor, or AFT, said it will sell €300 billion in government bonds next year, net of buybacks.
Credit Agricole appointed Olivier Gavalda to replace outgoing Chief Executive Officer Philippe Brassac, handing the top role to a lifelong veteran of the banking group as it contends with threats to its business interests in Italy.
Ex-French President Nicolas Sarkozy lost his final chance to overturn a historic criminal conviction after the nation’s top court upheld the sentence. Nicolas Sarkozy Photographer: Sameer Al-Doumy/Getty Images The downfall of Stellantis boss Carlos Tavares was one of the defining corporate events of 2024. His aggressive turnaround style, drastic cost cutting and price hikes created huge internal pushback and made his position untenable after profits slumped. His exit offers wider warnings for the hype around “cost-killer” CEOs.
President Macron visited the French territory of Mayotte to assess damage from the most powerful storm to hit the area in nearly a century. The cyclone caused widespread destruction and local officials have suggested the death toll could be as high as 1,000.
Bank of France Governor Francois Villeroy de Galhau said the new government must target significant deficit reduction, even though such efforts led to the downfall of the last administration. Separately, the central bank said large French banks have limited exposure to the country’s sovereign debt. French luxury group LVMH has acquired a historic villa in Cannes, France, for around €50 million ($52.7 million), to showcase its brands during the city’s star-studded festivals, people familiar with the matter told us. Villa Bagatelle, in Cannes. |