Presented by Food & Water Action: Inside the Golden State political arena
Dec 20, 2024 View in browser
 
POLITICO California Playbook Newsletter Header

By Blake Jones and Dustin Gardiner

Presented by 

Food & Water Action

Malia Cohen listens to speakers during a news conference.

Controller Malia Cohen made a head-turning vote that irked members of her own Democratic party. | Jeff Chiu/AP Photo

PROGRAMMING NOTE: This is our final California Playbook of the year. We’ll be off for the holidays but back to our regular schedule on Jan. 6. We wish you and yours a Merry Christmas, Happy Hanukkah, Blessed Kwanzaa and a Happy New Year!

THE BUZZ: DOUBLE TAKE — The usually low-profile world of California tax governance punctured mainstream Democratic politics this week following a head-turning vote.

At the center is Democratic Controller Malia Cohen, who sits on the state Board of Equalization — which oversees fee collection and tax administration issues. Cohen broke with fellow Democrats on a 3-2 vote to make Republican Ted Gaines chair of the board, irking members of her own party.

“Supporting a Trump-loyalist for the leadership post wouldn’t be my first choice,” California Democratic Party Chair Rusty Hicks said in a statement, adding that he’s “focused on promoting Democrats who deliver for all Californians.”

Cohen’s move puts her crosswise with Democrats as she charts her political future. She previously told allies she was considering a run for state treasurer in 2026. She’s said to be standing down on switching offices of late and was still fundraising through a reelection campaign account as recently as last week. But that does not close the door on a run for treasurer in which she’d presumably seek the state party’s endorsement.

One Democratic board aide said Cohen's move was not only politically damaging to her, but could also have real-world implications for tax policy. As chair of the equalization board, Gaines will also be awarded one of just three seats on the Franchise Tax Board, an entity with power over myriad tax collection issues in the nation’s largest state.

“That’s a big seat that won’t go to a Democrat,” said one Democratic board aide, granted anonymity because they were not authorized to speak publicly.

Gaines will still be part of a 2-3 Republican minority on the equalization board, but Cohen’s support was nevertheless striking in a state where the Democratic supermajority almost always elevates party members to leadership posts on legislative committees as well as state agencies and boards.

Her aisle-crossing move seemed to catch even fellow equalization board members off guard.

It was “somewhat of a surprise,” Sally Lieber, a Democrat on the equalization board who was seeking another year as chair, told Playbook.

“Pardon?!” Republican equalization board member Mike Schaefer exclaimed after Cohen voiced her support for Gaines ahead of the vote earlier this week.

Democratic equalization board member Antonio Vazquez voted for Lieber to stay in power. So too did Lieber, who said she had not been considering another year as chair until the November election.

“Although not in office yet, former President Trump has already called for a shutdown of the federal government,” Lieber told Playbook. “We don't know yet what we're going to be facing, but the signs are not good, and I just think that we have to all be pulling in the same direction.”

Cohen meanwhile praised Gaines and said he deserved a year atop the equalization board.

“Historically, the Board of Equalization has elected the Chair among members regardless of party affiliation,” Cohen told Playbook in a statement. “While I may not agree with Mr. Gaines on every issue, he has provided critical leadership on several significant property tax matters. We believe in working across the aisle at the BOE and I look forward to continuing to work with all of my colleagues on the Board in 2025.”

GOOD MORNING. Happy Friday. Thanks for waking up with Playbook.

You can text us at ‪916-562-0685‬‪ — save it as “CA Playbook” in your contacts. Or drop us a line at dgardiner@politico.com and bjones@politico.com, or on X — @DustinGardiner and @jonesblakej.

WHERE’S GAVIN? Traveling out of the state.

 

A message from Food & Water Action:

Will Gov. Newsom side with the oil and gas industry or Californians after the “worst gas leak in US history?" In 2015, the Aliso Canyon Gas Storage Facility released 100,000 tons of methane and toxic chemicals, endangering public health. Governor Newsom vowed to shut down Aliso Canyon, but his Public Utilities Commission appointees voted to expand it. The PUC will decide Aliso Canyon’s future on December 19th. Learn more.

 
CAMPAIGN YEAR(S)

A U-Haul rental truck sits in traffic.

New figures suggest California could lose up to four congressional seats in 2030, but the changes could vary greatly by region. | Scott Olson/Getty Images

LOCATION, LOCATION — Political insiders are already fretting over census population estimates released Thursday that suggest California could lose up to four congressional seats in 2030.

But the degree to which Californians feel that potential loss of representation will vary greatly based on where they live.

The areas of the state most likely to be impacted by the loss of House seats are urban coastal areas that have fueled the state’s net population loss since 2020: San Francisco, Los Angeles, San Mateo and Alameda counties — which all saw an exodus of residents seeking more affordable housing in inland areas or other states.

Remote rural counties in the Sierra were also hit by population loss, including Lassen, Alpine and Del Norte counties.

Those coastal and mountainous regions are more vulnerable to seeing their congressional districts combined or eliminated because the California Citizens Redistricting Commission will likely be forced to redraw district lines in those areas to include more residents.

There’s another side to the coin, however: Inland counties that have benefited from an influx of residents seeking more affordable places to live.

Those counties in the Central Valley and Inland Empire are likely to be shielded from abrupt changes due to their significant population growth. Among them: San Benito, Yuba, Madera, Merced, Placer, Riverside and San Joaquin counties.

Still, there are some positive signs, at least in the short term: Last year, the state reversed a three-year population decline, and even LA and San Francisco added more residents than they lost.

But the state would have to boost its population numbers dramatically over the next six years to avoid losing seats in Congress, according to the projections.

 

You read POLITICO for trusted reporting. Now follow every twist of the lame duck session with Inside Congress. We track the committee meetings, hallway conversations, and leadership signals that show where crucial year-end deals are heading. Subscribe now.

 
 
CLIMATE AND ENERGY

ANOTHER WAIVER WRINKLE — California truck fleets might have trouble complying with the state’s clean truck purchasing mandate expected to receive a federal waiver any day. But it’s an even harder path for fleets from Mexico also governed by the rule. Read about how cross-border trucking companies are nervously watching Washington in last night’s California Climate.

TOP TALKERS

— Efforts to prevent a government shutdown appear to have fizzled on Capitol Hill after Republicans failed to secure enough votes for a stopgap bill on Thursday. As POLITICO’s Katherine Tully-McManus reports, the partisan blame game is already in full gear. Democrats dubbed it the Elon Musk shutdown, given how the billionaire publicly excoriated the original bipartisan spending deal and helped tank it. “Elon Musk ordered his puppet President-elect and House Republicans to break the bipartisan agreement reached to keep government open,” former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi wrote on social media.

 

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AROUND THE STATE

— Gov. Gavin Newsom’s efforts to build a state prison system focused more on rehabilitation than retribution has a unique focus at the Chowchilla correctional facility: helping women overcome past trauma. (Los Angeles Times)

— Plans for a Jonestown Memorial Tour have sparked a global backlash from people whose families were torn apart by the mass poisoning in 1978. Tourists are set to visit the camp’s ruins in Guyana, where 900 people died, many of them from the Bay Area. (The Washington Post)

— Police have received an emergency gun-violence protective order to remove firearms in the possession of a Carlsbad man. The suspect allegedly plotted with a teenage girl who perpetrated a Wisconsin school shooting this week. (The San Diego-Union Tribune)

— Mendota Mayor Víctor Martínez announced Thursday that he’s switching allegiances to the Republican Party. The mayor leads a tiny community, but his move still illustrates the tough road Democrats face in the Central Valley. (The Fresno Bee)

 

POLITICO Pro's unique analysis combines exclusive transition intelligence and data visualization to help you understand not just what's changing, but why it matters for your organization. Explore how POLITICO Pro will make a difference for you.

 
 
PLAYBOOKERS

PEOPLE MOVES — Alex Stack, one of Newsom’s longest-serving deputy comms directors, has left the governor’s office after nearly four years. He told Playbook he plans to take some time off but will announce his next move in the coming weeks. Congratulations, Alex, on a well-deserved break!

— Patrick Kilcur, the top lobbyist at the Motion Picture Association, is leaving the trade group after 11 years to join Ballard Partners, where he’ll be a partner and focus on Senate Republican outreach. Ballard has represented the MPA since 2018.

BIRTHDAYS — Jacob Burman in the office of LA Councilwoman Traci Park … Eric Kingsbury, campaign manager for SF Mayor London Breed … Louise Linton

FUTURE BIRTHDAYS (HOLIDAY EDITION)(on Saturday): Rep. Zoe Lofgren … former LA County Supervisor Zev Yaroslavsky … former Treasury Secretary Steven MnuchinJosh Hagen at the Campaign for College Opportunity … Jeffrey Katzenberg Brian Goldsmith … (on Sunday): former Senate candidate and LA Dodger Steve Garvey Scott Pellegrino

(on Monday): Claire Norton in the office of Assemblymember Juan Carrillo … (on Tuesday/Christmas Eve): Ted Bardacke, CEO at Clean Power Alliance … (on Dec. 27): Savanah Dominikus in the office Assemblymember Diane Papan … on (Dec. 28): George Andrews with the Assembly Republican Caucus …

(on Dec. 29): POLITICO’s Rachel Bluth … (on Dec. 30): Jacob Jauregui of Hilltop Public Solutions … (on Dec. 31): Rocky Fernandez of the Center for Sustainable Energy … Christian Griffith with the Assembly Budget Committee …

(on Jan. 2): Assembly Speaker Robert Rivas … POLITICO’s Mike ZaplerMarc Johnson at Meta … Gabrielle Carteris … (on Jan. 3): outgoing Rep. Katie PorterRyan K. Brown, chief of staff to Sacramento Vice Mayor Caity Maple … Noam Levey Richard Manning KarpAlexander David Linz

WANT A SHOUT-OUT FEATURED? — Send us a birthday, career move or another special occasion to include in POLITICO’s California Playbook. You can now submit a shout-out using this Google form.

 

A message from Food & Water Action:

Will Gov. Newsom side with the oil and gas industry or Californians after the “worst gas leak in US history?" In 2015, the Aliso Canyon Gas Storage Facility released 100,000 tons of methane and toxic chemicals. SoCalGas’ disaster forced thousands to evacuate their homes to avoid further exposure to cancer-causing benzene and other chemicals.

SoCalGas took four months to seal the gas leak. Families near Aliso are still suffering the consequences. Instead of shutting it down like Gov. Newsom promised, the PUC allowed Aliso to expand by 3,000%, perpetuating the public health threat.

Over 150 organizations have come together to call for a shutdown of Aliso by 2027, but the PUC is considering kicking the can down the road instead of protecting communities. Gov. Newsom and allies should stand with families, not SoCalGas’ profits. On December 19th, the PUC will decide the future of Aliso Canyon. Learn more.

 

CALIFORNIA POLICY IS ALWAYS CHANGING: Know your next move. From Sacramento to Silicon Valley, POLITICO California Pro provides policy professionals with the in-depth reporting and tools they need to get ahead of policy trends and political developments shaping the Golden State. To learn more about the exclusive insight and analysis this subscriber-only service offers, click here.

Want to make an impact? POLITICO California has a variety of solutions available for partners looking to reach and activate the most influential people in the Golden State. Have a petition you want signed? A cause you’re promoting? Seeking to increase brand awareness amongst this key audience? Share your message with our influential readers to foster engagement and drive action. Contact Rebecca Haase to find out how: rhaase@politico.com.

 

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