The State of a Messy Awards Race, at Year’s End |
Happy holidays, readers! A winter break is finally here, and with it, the abrupt wind-down of panel conversations, special screenings, and breathless horserace tracking. With the release of Tuesday’s Oscar shortlists, the Academy officially, finally weighed in with their first indications of where their winds are blowing this season. Now campaigns are left to celebrate (or panic), and just wait for what the New Year will bring.
I’m David Canfield, and I’d be hard-pressed to look at the past few weeks’ many momentum shifts without first acknowledging the overpowering performance of Emilia Pérez. The film has been divisive (to say the least) among critics and on social media, but is arguably the best-positioned of any contender at this stage. Emilia led the Golden Globe nominations and Academy shortlist mentions; the Critics Choice Awards similarly went wild for it; and let’s not forget that the audacious Jacques Audiard trans-themed musical has already won multiple prizes at the Cannes Film Festival and from the European Academy. For the modern Oscars, that’s major.
Does that make Emilia the front-runner to win best picture? Not necessarily—the backlash remains real, and potentially problematic on a preferential ballot—but all available data points to it as a top-tier contender. Its main competitors from my vantage point—Wicked, Anora, and Conclave—are humming along just fine, bound to pick up steam next month, but they’re waiting for a similar breakout moment to truly affirm they’re in this to win it.
More broadly, the race remains thrilling. Best picture is a true toss-up. The fierce best actress competition contains as many icons (Nicole Kidman, Angelina Jolie, Demi Moore) as it does discoveries (Mikey Madison, Karla Sofía Gascón, and at least to American audiences, Fernanda Torres), to say nothing of the critics’ darling of the year, Marianne Jean-Baptiste. I’d argue the best-actor race is between Adrien Brody, who two decades ago became the youngest winner of that category ever for The Pianist, and Timothée Chalamet, who would take that same mantle if he won for A Complete Unknown. Everywhere you look, there’s a fascinating story to be told.
For now, let’s ponder the possibilities. There will only be this many for so long. |
