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| By Phelim Kine, Robbie Gramer and Eric Bazail-Eimil | |
 Any Taiwanese delegation to the inauguration would have to carry out a delicate diplomatic balancing act. | I-Hwa Cheng/AFP via Getty Images |
With help from Daniel Lippman, John Sakellariadis and Nahal Toosi Subscribe here | Email Robbie | Email Eric Taiwan is launching a new charm offensive on Washington as DONALD TRUMP takes office, and it all starts at Trump’s inauguration. Taiwan’s government is dispatching a large delegation to Washington for the inauguration next month, led by Taiwan’s legislative speaker and opposition KMT politician, HAN KUO-YU, according to three people familiar with Taipei’s planning. NatSec Daily granted all three anonymity because they weren’t authorized to discuss diplomatic matters publicly. The precise number of Taiwanese lawmakers coming for the ceremony is unknown, but the three individuals stressed that it was a markedly big number of attendees. It’s unclear whether it will be larger than the delegations that Taiwan has dispatched to attend past U.S. presidential inaugurations.
The move, which has not been previously reported, underscores how unnerved Taipei is over what Trump’s return to the White House means for the self-governing island. Trump has kept Taiwanese officials guessing on what his approach would look like by criticizing Taiwan while also backing hardline policies on China.
Any Taiwanese delegation to the inauguration would have to carry out a delicate diplomatic balancing act. Chinese officials get enraged by any U.S. engagement with Taiwanese officials as undermining the so-called One-China policy. (China views Taiwan as part of its own territory and the United States has formal diplomatic recognition with Beijing). Then, there’s the fact that Trump invited Chinese President XI JINPING to attend his inauguration (though Xi reportedly plans to decline the invite) and Trump is surrounding himself with both China hawks — such as his secretary of State pick, Sen. MARCO RUBIO (R-Fla.) — and also China-friendly business magnates like ELON MUSK. DAVID SACKS, an Asia studies fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations think tank, said Han is likely to try to address those perceptions next month by telling Trump and his team that Taiwan “is taking its defense seriously, that it's not a free rider.” Trump urged Taiwan earlier this year to boost its spending on defense to 10 percent of its GDP from a current level of around 2.6 percent. Trump’s former national security adviser ROBERT O’BRIEN, who is in frequent contact with the president-elect on national security matters, later said that Taipei should pay at least five percent of its GDP to satisfy Trump’s concerns. Still, Taiwan has been savvy at navigating Washington’s political scene in the past. Successive Taiwan governments have consistently done “a remarkable job at managing the politics of the United States to their advantage,” regardless of which party controls the White House, said STEPHEN YOUNG, a former career U.S. diplomat who led the U.S. diplomatic outpost in Taiwan. That could mean emphasizing Taiwan’s value as a business partner (yes, microchips) and its democratic system. Taiwan’s representative office declined to comment. The Chinese embassy in Washington didn't respond to a request for comment.
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The F-35 helps secure our world. The program unites valued allies and partners, powers small businesses, and creates high-paying, high-tech jobs for workers in critical innovation fields. Learn more. | | | | | 2% IS SO LAST YEAR: President-elect DONALD TRUMP has a more ambitious vision for NATO defense spending than previously expected. As The Financial Times’ LUCY FISHER, HENRY FOY and FELICIA SCHWARTZ report, the Trump team has told European allies that they want NATO allies’ defense spending benchmark raised from 2 percent of GDP to a staggering 5 percent of GDP. It’s a jump from the 4 percent Trump suggested in 2018, and the 3 percent Trump had been calling for earlier this year, though the Trump team indicated the incoming president would settle for 3.5 percent as a compromise. European leaders have already been calling for increased defense spending ahead of Trump’s inauguration as a way to shore up the alliance, with some pushing for 2.5 or 3 percent as the new benchmark. Currently, 23 of the alliance’s 32 members meet the 2 percent defense spending benchmark. None, including the United States, meet 5 percent. The report isn’t all bad news for Europe: the Trump transition team also signaled to allies that the United States would keep supplying arms to Ukraine when the new president took office. BIDEN’S ITALIAN JAUNT: President JOE BIDEN has one more international trip in the works before he leaves office. As our own GISELLE RUHIYYIH EWING reports, Biden will go to Italy in January and meet with POPE FRANCIS, Italian Prime Minister GIORGIA MELONI and Italian President SERGIO MATTARELLA. The Jan. 9-12 trip underscores how important Meloni will be to the U.S. going into 2025, as Italy’s influence within Europe increases and the U.S.-Italy relationship looks poised to blossom with Trump in the White House. SUDAN DOUBLESPEAK: Congressional staffers and U.S. officials are not impressed with a top NSC official's explanations on the United Arab Emirates' alleged support for a Sudanese militia accused of war crimes. Top White House official BRETT McGURK sent a letter to Sen. CHRIS VAN HOLLEN (D-Md.) claiming that the United Arab Emirates won’t continue arming the Rapid Support Forces in Sudan — without actually quite acknowledging it’s already done so. The UAE, for its part, has always denied arming the RSF. The “UAE has informed the administration that it is not now transferring any weapons to the RSF and will not do so going forward,” McGurk wrote to Van Hollen, who with Rep. SARA JACOBS (D-Calif.) introduced legislation that would block arms sales to the UAE over its role in worsening Sudan’s civil war. McGurk also wrote that the administration would work to monitor the credibility and reliability of the UAE’s claims in the next month. That prompted scorn from congressional aides and U.S. officials who have privately criticized the Biden administration for not calling out the UAE over its role in Sudan’s civil war. The UAE is seen as an important partner in the U.S. response to the Middle East crisis.
“This sounds like something a paid lobbyist wrote,” said one congressional aide, reflecting general sentiment among those tracking the issue on Capitol Hill. The aide was granted anonymity to speak candidly. Asked about the matter, a White House National Security Council spokesperson stressed that the administration was committed to providing an assessment on the matter in a month. BOUNTY? WHAT BOUNTY? The U.S. won’t, for now, enforce the $10 million bounty it long ago placed on Syria’s new de facto leader AHMED AL-SHARAA, a top U.S. diplomat said today after meeting with him in Damascus. Assistant Secretary of State BARBARA LEAF said the decision was practical given that the U.S. would have to deal with al-Sharaa also known as Abu Mohammad Al-Jolani, the leader of the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham rebel group. Al-Sharaa, is trying to transform his image from rebel leader to pragmatic Syrian official. But HTS is a U.S.-designated terrorist group. “If I'm sitting with the HTS leader and having a, you know, a lengthy, detailed discussion … it's a little incoherent, then to have a bounty on the guy's head. Otherwise, I should ask the FBI to come in and, like, arrest him or something,” Leaf said.
DRINKS WITH NATSEC DAILY: At the end of every long, hard week, we like to highlight how a prominent member of the national security scene prefers to unwind with a drink. Christmas and Hanukkah are fast approaching, so we wanted to know how our own Giselle Ruhiyyih Ewing (reporter and producer extraordinaire who goes by Gigi to her friends) plans on imbibing this holiday season. After all, if anyone deserves a drink in this town, it’s her and fellow producer GREGORY SVIRNOVSKIY. If only you knew the amount of headaches the two of them have saved this newsletter from with their steady copy-editing and digital troubleshooting. Gigi told us she's ready to cozy up over the holidays with a nice cup of tea in front of her newly installed fake fireplace. To add a smoky ambiance that the plastic logs can't quite accomplish, she looks forward to brewing a nice pot of Lapsang Souchong, a smoked tea known for its woody smell that shockingly replicates the scent of fire.
As for your NatSec Daily hosts, Robbie is “stress-drinking eggnog” and Eric is making coquito, the Puerto Rican rum and coconut-based concoction that flies off the shelves every Christmas in Miami. Cheers, Gigi! IT’S FRIDAY! WELCOME TO THE WEEKEND: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily! This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at rgramer@politico.com and ebazail@politico.com, and follow Robbie and Eric on X @RobbieGramer and @ebazaileimil. While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s global security team: @dave_brown24,@HeidiVogt, @jessicameyers, @RosiePerper, @nahaltoosi, @PhelimKine, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary,@reporterjoe, @JackDetsch, @samuelskove, @magmill95, and @johnnysaks130 | |
CISA DIRECTOR CONTENDER DRAMA: A top contender for a leading cybersecurity role in the Trump administration faced an inspector general probe for allegedly misusing government travel resources. As our friends reported this morning in Morning Cybersecurity (for Pros!), BRIAN HARRELL, who is reportedly being considered by the transition team for a senior cyber role, abruptly left the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency in August 2020 after the investigation was launched. He resigned his post as head of the Infrastructure Security Division at CISA the day after the Department of Homeland Security’s inspector general called him to answer its questions, according to four former senior Trump administration officials who were briefed on the case.
The IG had started looking into the matter earlier that summer and never released a report on the matter after Harrell left. The IG also looked into reports Harrell had a romantic relationship with a female employee who traveled with him even when she “did not have a natural reason to be on the trips.” Harrell was reportedly being considered for director of CISA or the DHS undersecretary of strategy, policy and plans, and was reportedly invited to Palm Beach for an interview. TIMOTHY PARLATORE, a lawyer for Harrell, called the investigation “frivolous” and said that the IG’s investigation didn’t advance to the level of interviewing him. He also disputed an allegation that Harrell didn’t perform his duties on the trips in question, calling it a “lie,” and specified that Harrell “traveled with several employees, including policy advisers,” such as the female colleague mentioned. He added that Harrell had a “planned departure” and that he was already interviewing for jobs before he left CISA.
TRUMP’S MAN AT THE VATICAN: Trump announced today he’ll pick BRIAN BURCH, head of a Catholic advocacy group and a critic of Francis, to be the U.S. ambassador to the Holy See. Bunch wouldn’t be the first political pick to be ambassador to the Vatican. Look no further than Biden's pick, former Sen. JOE DONNELLY, or Trump’s first pick, political activist CALLISTA GINGRICH. But as Eric reports, Bunch is an online critic of Francis’ leadership of the church and those disagreements could tee up tensions with the Vatican. For his part, Burch wrote on X that he is “committed to working with leaders inside the Vatican and the new Administration to promote the dignity of all people and the common good.”
| | | |   | | | | | LONG ARM OF THE LAW: The Department of Justice is poised to put a major Russian cybercriminal behind bars, in what would be a rare win against online crooks who target U.S. companies from abroad, our own JOHN SAKELLARIADIS writes in. On Friday, DOJ unsealed a criminal complaint against ROSTISLAV PANEV, 51, over his support for a prolific ransomware gang named LockBit. A dual Russian and Israeli national, Panev was recently arrested in Israel, DOJ said, and remains in custody pending extradition to the U.S. LockBit was once one of the world’s most prolific ransomware groups, DOJ said in a statement, causing billions of dollars in damages by breaking into foreign companies, hospitals, and schools, and threatening to delete or release their data. Panev is charged with providing critical technical support to the group, such as building malware for them and maintaining their digital infrastructure.
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CQ’S SAFE, FOR NOW: The incoming Trump administration is reconsidering its earlier plans to fire Joint Chiefs Chair C.Q. BROWN. As NBC News’ COURTNEY KUBE and CAROL LEE report, Trump and Brown’s meeting at the Army-Navy game last weekend went very well and Trump is “changing his tone” on the nation’s top military leader. It now appears Trump will not fire him immediately upon taking office. Trump spokesperson MARGO MARTIN also tweeted a photo of the two meeting in the owner’s box at Northwest Stadium in Landover, Maryland. For months, Trump and his allies had pledged to fire Brown and other leaders they accused of undermining the military by focusing too much on diversity initiatives. But Republican senators have increasingly urged Trump to retain Brown, arguing his experience would be a key counterweight to the lack of military leadership experience of Trump’s pick to lead the Pentagon, former Fox News host PETE HEGSETH.
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THE CR’S NATSEC VICTIMS: House Speaker MIKE JOHNSON is working on a legislative Hail Mary to avoid a government shutdown before the holidays, as our own JORDAIN CARNEY and MEREDITH LEE HILL report. But there could be significant casualties on the national security front from all the drama. First, China legislation: The original continuing resolution that blew up earlier this week included national security provisions championed by China hawks like restrictions on U.S. outbound investments to China and government reviews of real estate purchases by Chinese-owned firms near U.S. military bases. Those provisions, championed by Johnson and House China Committee Chair Rep. JOHN MOOLENAAR (R-Mich.), were stripped from subsequent drafts of the bill and now face an uncertain future. “From a China policy perspective, it’s really frustrating,” said MICHAEL SOBOLIK, a former aide to Sen. TED CRUZ (R-Texas) and China analyst at the American Foreign Policy Council think tank. “It shows serious China national security policy legislation is a casualty to domestic political arguments, which is not a great sign.” And then, Haiti: It’s also unlikely that a bill extending duty-free agreements with Haiti will pass this year after it was not included in the final spending package. Analysts have warned that the end of that agreement could cripple Haiti’s struggling garments sector, which relies heavily on U.S. trade, and kill thousands of jobs. This could in turn exacerbate the country’s gang crisis and economic collapse. “With these provisions set to expire, we face an alarming prospect: the collapse of one of the few industries that has provided stability and hope to many Haitian workers,” said BOCCHIT EDMOND, Haiti’s former foreign minister.
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| — NAZ DURAKOĞLU will join the Senate Foreign Relations Committee Democrats in the new Congress as staff director under Sen. JEANNE SHAHEEN (D-N.H.), two Senate aides familiar with the matter confirmed to NatSec Daily. Durakoğlu is currently assistant secretary of state in the State Department’s bureau for legislative affairs. — BENNETT HARMAN, the deputy assistant U.S. trade representative for Africa and the longest-serving policy official in USTR’s history, will retire at the end of the year. Harman served as deputy chief negotiator of the U.S.-Kenya Strategic Trade and Investment Partnership and played a role in the negotiations to approve the Peru and Colombia Trade Promotion Agreements. He served under 10 U.S. trade representatives and served 35 years at the agency. Prior to his USTR service, Harman worked at the Commerce Department. — PETER MANDELSON, a British lord and longtime Labour official, will be tapped as British ambassador to the U.S., The Times’ STEVEN SWINFORD reports.
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— NETTE NÖSTLINGER, POLITICO: Backlash builds as Elon Musk endorses Germany’s far right — VICTOR CHA, The Atlantic: South Korea’s crisis is nowhere near over — EMMA ASHFORD and MATTHEW KROENIG, Foreign Policy: Who were the winners and losers of 2024?
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— No events of note on Monday. The holidays are clearly approaching. Thanks to our editor, Heidi Vogt, who is trying to curry favor with us with large entreaties. Thanks to our producer, Raymond Rapada, who never needs to flatter us to win our approval and friendship. | | A message from Lockheed Martin: F-35: Strengthening Our Supply Chain. Securing Our Future.
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