Welcome to POLITICO’s West Wing Playbook, your guide to the preparations, personnel decisions and policy deliberations of Donald Trump’s transition. POLITICO Pro subscribers receive a version of this newsletter first. Send tips | Subscribe here | Email Eli | Email Lauren | Email Lisa | Email Megan The looming government shutdown is adding a unique twist to what was already an unprecedented presidential transition — one where the incoming administration all but refuses the federal government’s help. A government shutdown would only exacerbate those delays. “This is unprecedented on so many levels,” said ANN O’LEARY, who led the potential transition planning for the HILLARY CLINTON campaign in 2016. “We’ve never had a presidential team entirely privatize this effort.” “At a minimum, a shutdown of the government is going to certainly add to the chaos and the vulnerability to the U.S. government,” she added.
The crew in Mar-a-Lago, however, is much calmer about the situation than their critics in Washington. Asked about the shutdown’s impact on the transition, a Trump spokesperson said the president-elect is “making brilliant Cabinet nominations at lightning pace while leading an efficient, streamlined Transition across the executive branch,” and declined to respond to any specifics about shutdown-related contingency planning.
Those inside the process are even more relaxed. Most officials feel the transition is self-contained due to its separation from federal agencies, said one person familiar with transition planning, granted anonymity to share internal dynamics. And DONALD TRUMP’s nominees don’t care as much about policy continuity as in many other transitions, so they don’t mind not being able to meet with outgoing agency officials, at least for a time. “Nobody is freaking out” on the Trump transition team over the shutdown, the person said. Still, a shutdown will pose new obstacles to what’s been an already unusual transition. Here’s what you need to know: Can the feds assist Trump’s transition during a shutdown? The Biden administration has long insisted that it’s been trying to facilitate an orderly handoff, but those operations would be pared back — even if they wouldn’t say which ones. “Transition activities will be restricted,” press secretary KARINE JEAN-PIERRE told reporters Friday during a White House briefing. “We’re doing everything to ensure a smooth transition, but the choice to allow a transition to move forward is in the hands of Republicans in Congress.” That came after an OMB spokesperson on Thursday warned that such a shutdown “would disrupt a wide range of activities associated with the orderly transition of power,” but declined to specify what programs and personnel would be impacted.
Still, it’s not hard to infer some of the consequences. Because of Trump’s refusal to use government servers for the transition, some federal staffers are reluctant to share sensitive documents with their incoming counterparts over email, instead opting for in-person meetings. Those will all but halt under a shutdown, and most federal workers would also be barred from communicating via phone or email from home. Some workers can avoid such furloughs by being designated “essential” under the Anti-Deficiency Act. But SETH HARRIS, a former acting Labor secretary who has worked on three Democratic presidential transitions, told POLITICO that most transition activities likely wouldn’t qualify, other than some staff who work on national security. “It creates yet another barrier to a smooth transition,” said Democratic health policy consultant CHRIS JENNINGS, who served on transition teams for Presidents BILL CLINTON, BARACK OBAMA and JOE BIDEN. Would an inauguration take place during a shutdown? While Republican Sen. CYNTHIA LUMMIS told reporters Friday that Trump “doesn't care whether he gets a very modest swearing in,” West Wing Playbook isn’t so sure. And a shutdown will mean a delay to crucial preparations for Trump’s big bash. ADRIENNE ELROD, the head of talent and external relations for Biden’s 2021 Presidential Inaugural Committee, said furloughs could affect nearly every aspect of inaugural planning, from who hands out tickets to who escorts guests and ensures ample security.
“So the real question is, during a shutdown, can this team of people be deemed essential under the rules that apply for government shutdowns?” she said. “My guess is right now there’s a lot of furious planning going on, putting people on lists, ‘you’re essential, you’re not essential… and my guess is there’s a real case to be made that most of the people working on this [inauguration] committee are essential.” What are the national security concerns? But the risks stretch beyond Trump’s big party in DC and could even affect U.S. national security readiness early in Trump’s second term. The 9/11 Commission report found that delays in the 2000 presidential transition due to the Bush v. Gore Supreme Court case “delayed the national security appointments and national security information being shared in a timely manner.”
The national security risk is “not just speculation,” O’Leary said. “It is documented that this has happened in the past and we need to make sure it doesn’t happen again.” As the shutdown looms, health experts are closely watching the H5N1 bird flu that is spreading among dairy cattle, one of many government responsibilities that are subject to vulnerabilities in a transition and a shutdown.
“It’s really hard to convey just how disruptive shutdowns are,” said TOM FRIEDEN, who led the Centers for Disease Control during the 2013 shutdown and is now the president and CEO of Resolve to Save Lives, a non-profit that works to prevent epidemics and cardiovascular disease. “If you’re on multi-year [project] money you [remain working], if you’re on fee-based money you stay, if you’re taking care of lab animals you stay because it’s property,” Frieden said, “whereas if you’re tracking an epidemic that hasn’t yet blown up, you may not stay.” MESSAGE US — Are you TOM EMMER? We want to hear from you. And we’ll keep you anonymous! Email us at westwingtips@politico.com. Did someone forward this email to you? Subscribe here!
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