Welcome to the weekend issue of Brussels Edition, Bloomberg’s daily briefing on what matters most in the heart of the European Union. Join us on Saturdays for deeper dives from our bureaus across Europe. VIENNA — Austrians typically glide like clockwork into the new year, dancing a Danube waltz to the melody of Johan Strauss that is broadcast nationwide at midnight. But when the chimes ring in 2025, some eyes will be focused on the trading floor rather than the dance floor. Austria is preparing for Russian natural gas flows to end from Jan. 1 when time runs out on an agreement allowing Gazprom fuel to transit Ukraine. The militarily neutral nation has some of Europe’s deepest energy ties to the Kremlin, which has helped keep its economy humming on long-term gas contracts spanning six decades. Even now, more than three years into Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Gazprom continues covering more than four-fifths of Austrian fuel demand. Should eleventh-hour talks over a new transit agreement fail, Austrians and other central Europeans will suddenly find themselves outside of the Kremlin’s energy orbit for the first time in living memory. Gas traders are jumping at the chance to fill the vacuum, signing deals to carry fuel over alternate German and Italian routes. Austrian storage depots — among the largest in Europe — are sufficient to cover this winter and beyond. Perhaps most importantly, Austria’s economy is retooling, driving gas consumption down about a fifth since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine began almost three years ago. “We are prepared for every eventuality,” said Stefan Wagenhofer, who leads pipeline operator Gas Connect Austria, adding he might be glancing at his mobile for urgent market messages when the new year turns. It may take days or weeks before non-Russian flows kick in to establish a new market equilibrium. In the interregnum, Wagenhofer suggested that change is the only certainty. “We have moved away from a very stable, long-term market model,” he said. “Volatility is the new normal.” — Jonathan Tirone, Austria reporter Editor’s note: Brussels Edition will take a break for the holidays. It will return on Jan. 6. For more coverage, subscribe to the Morning & Evening Briefing Europe. |