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Austrians may suddenly find themselves outside of the Kremlin’s energy orbit for the first time in living memory
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Welcome to the weekend issue of Brussels Edition, Bloomberg’s daily briefing on what matters most in the heart of the European Union. Join us on Saturdays for deeper dives from our bureaus across Europe.

VIENNA — Austrians typically glide like clockwork into the new year, dancing a Danube waltz to the melody of Johan Strauss that is broadcast nationwide at midnight.

But when the chimes ring in 2025, some eyes will be focused on the trading floor rather than the dance floor.

Austria is preparing for Russian natural gas flows to end from Jan. 1 when time runs out on an agreement allowing Gazprom fuel to transit Ukraine.

The militarily neutral nation has some of Europe’s deepest energy ties to the Kremlin, which has helped keep its economy humming on long-term gas contracts spanning six decades. Even now, more than three years into Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Gazprom continues covering more than four-fifths of Austrian fuel demand.

Should eleventh-hour talks over a new transit agreement fail, Austrians and other central Europeans will suddenly find themselves outside of the Kremlin’s energy orbit for the first time in living memory.

Gas traders are jumping at the chance to fill the vacuum, signing deals to carry fuel over alternate German and Italian routes.

Austrian storage depots — among the largest in Europe — are sufficient to cover this winter and beyond. Perhaps most importantly, Austria’s economy is retooling, driving gas consumption down about a fifth since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine began almost three years ago.

“We are prepared for every eventuality,” said Stefan Wagenhofer, who leads pipeline operator Gas Connect Austria, adding he might be glancing at his mobile for urgent market messages when the new year turns.

It may take days or weeks before non-Russian flows kick in to establish a new market equilibrium. In the interregnum, Wagenhofer suggested that change is the only certainty.

“We have moved away from a very stable, long-term market model,” he said. “Volatility is the new normal.”

Jonathan Tirone, Austria reporter

Editor’s note: Brussels Edition will take a break for the holidays. It will return on Jan. 6. For more coverage, subscribe to the Morning & Evening Briefing Europe.

Weekend Reads

Meloni Era Is Lifting Italy’s Curse of Forever Doubtful Markets

Giorgia Meloni keeps managing a feat that her predecessors as Italian prime minister long struggled with: earning ever greater trust from investors. As the premier approaches the end of her second full year in office, the almost unheard of era of political stability she’s ushered in is being applauded by markets with yet further narrowing of the spread between the country’s bonds and its German equivalents.

Novo Nordisk’s Hiring Binge Leaves Danish Firms Starved of Labor

Commuters, haulage and heavy equipment trucks outside Novo’s expanding manufacturing hub in Kalundborg. Photographer: Carsten Snejbjerg/Bloomberg

Business was good for Brian Larsen’s car service shop in Kalundborg, a coastal town west of Copenhagen, but he had to shut it down.  With Novo Nordisk in the midst of a rapid hiring spree at its nearby manufacturing hub, finding staff became virtually impossible. Novo has boosted Denmark’s economy tremendously, but its success is bringing another set of risks.

Tether Removal Puts Europe at Risk of Missing Trump Crypto Boom

EU cryptoasset regulations set to take full force at year-end are already reshaping the market for a key type of digital token, potentially weakening the bloc’s appeal to investors just as crypto convert Donald Trump gets ready to take office in the US. Several crypto exchanges operating in the EU have already delisted the dominant stablecoin Tether to comply with a new law.

How Can the World Move Beyond Combustion Cars? Look to Norway

In 2017, Norway set a goal of eliminating sales of fossil-fuel-powered cars by 2025. At the time it seemed like little more than a feel-good fantasy to soften the image of a government led by Erna Solberg, a conservative advocate of oil production who’d earned the sobriquet “Iron Erna.” But as the deadline approaches, it turns out that the Nordic country will come within a whisker of meeting that milestone.

Coming Up in Europe

  • Today: Finland’s Prime Minister Petteri Orpo hosts a summit in Saariselka, Finland, to discuss European security, defense and preparedness
  • Dec 29: Croatian presidential election
  • Dec. 31: French President Emmanuel Macron gives annual televised new year's speech
  • Jan. 1: Poland takes over the rotating EU presidency; New Year's speeches by Finnish President Alexander Stubb, Norway’s Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Store, Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen

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