Five things you need to know

• US equity futures were steady in subdued trading as traders assessed the outlook for economic growth and interest rates. The dollar advanced after a US government shutdown was averted.
• Honda and Nissan are looking to finalize a merger agreement as soon as June, and may combine in 2026, Japanese media reported
• President-elect Donald Trump named Stephen Miran to helm his Council of Economic Advisers, tapping a onetime Treasury official who recently criticized his former department's debt management policies. Trump also picked more crypto advisers
• Hedge funds have turned upbeat on the dollar against the yen, while some are sounding the alarm on overvalued nuclear power stocks
• Panama’s president rebuffed Trump’s threat to reimpose US control over the Panama Canal, saying sovereignty over the waterway isn’t negotiable. Trump has decried “ridiculous” transit fees for US vessels and alleged Chinese encroachment.
  
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The year’s wildest trades

Investors are ending 2024 by giving thanks to Donald Trump's election victory and the advance of AI.

In Bloomberg's annual rundown of which trades flourished and which ones flopped in the past year, investors who kept it simple, by sticking to US Treasury bills or tech stocks, proved smart.

Those who bet on Trump prevailing in November's election also had reason to celebrate, with crypto-backers and dollar-fans among the winners.

Red-hot US stocks and crypto sparked furious risk-taking, making Exchange-Traded Funds the go-to investment for day traders. 

It almost didn't pay to think too hard. Leveraged trades briefly blew up in August, while hedge funds with complex strategies took hits. Wagering on whether and when proposed mergers and acquisitions will close also did poorly.

Emerging markets again underperformed the US stock market, although Argentina did well for once.

Perhaps the wildest rally was found in a niche market in Madrid, where a 2,900% gain was witnessed in the span of seconds. The beneficiary was a bond which investors had given up on amid a series of bank mergers — Simon Kennedy

On the move

Rumble shares surged as much as 55% in US premarket trading on Monday following a $775 million investment from stablecoin issuer Tether. Rumble plans to use some of the proceeds to solidify its balance sheet, according to a statement. 

Novo Nordisk shares rise as much as 10%, clawing back some of Friday’s 21% plunge after the Danish drugmaker’s experimental obesity shot CagriSema failed to meet its own bar for success. — Kit Rees 

Yelling at Yellen?

Trump has hired another critic of the US Treasury’s recent managing of the nation’s debt to his incoming administration.

The latest sign-up is Stephen Miran, who, subject to being confirmed by the Senate, will chair Trump’s Council of Economic Advisers.

Miran was a senior economic policy adviser at the Treasury Department during Trump’s first term and is now a fellow at the New York-based Manhattan Institute.

In July, he co-authored a paper with economist Nouriel Roubini which alleged the Treasury had manipulated the issuance of US securities in a way that lowered real borrowing costs across the economy.

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen declared there was “no such strategy.”

Scott Bessent, Trump's choice to replace Yellen, previously advocated increasing the average maturity of debt issuance.

As bond traders already fret about what the Federal Reserve will do in 2025, another key question is how much will Miran and Bessent stick to their views once in office, at a time when the government will have more debt to sell. — Skylar Woodhouse

Word from Wall Street

What else we’re reading

• Trump is upending global politics even before he takes office 
• Masayoshi Son’s next great hope is taking Nvidia’s AI crown
• Ex-Citigroup Trader Wins Unfair Dismissal Case in Hong Kong
• Elon Musk Makes ‘Overstaffed’ Fed Target in Quest for Efficiency
• Britain’s £2 billion shoplifting spree sparks security overhaul

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