Talks between Israeli and Hamas envoys to pause the 15-month war in Gaza are making progress, with negotiations underway to release hostages in exchange for Palestinian prisoners and deliver a boost to humanitarian aid. US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan said today there’s a “distinct possibility” that a ceasefire deal can be reached before President Joe Biden leaves office in a week. “The pressure is building for Hamas to come to yes,” Sullivan said in an interview at Bloomberg’s Washington bureau. Israeli officials said they’ve presented a detailed outline to Hamas in a second day of indirect discussions in the Qatari capital of Doha and are awaiting approval for final talks. A Hamas official outside Gaza also agreed that a deal is closer than ever. The goal of the talks is to reach a framework, if not a completed agreement by the inauguration of Donald Trump next Monday. But divisions remain on both sides, along with issues that have long been sticking points, including demands for a complete end to the war that began in October 2023. — Jennifer Duggan

What You Need to Know Today

UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer said he has “full confidence” in Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves and stressed his government would stick to its fiscal rules in response to a surge in UK borrowing costs. Market turmoil in recent days has hit the pound and sent borrowing costs to their highest since the financial crisis in 2008, putting pressure on Britain’s finance minister. UK assets entered a second week of declines ahead of key inflation data this week that may show price pressures remain elevated. There are questions about whether Reeves will have to change her economic plans to ensure she continues to meet a self-imposed rule for day-to-day spending to be covered by tax receipts.  

Tesla surpassed one of Germany’s most prized premium car brands last year, despite selling fewer vehicles than expected. Volkswagen’s Audi sold  1.67 million vehicles in 2024, down 12% from a year earlier. Its struggle with intensifying competition in Europe and China and weak demand for its electric models dropped the brand behind Elon Musk’s Tesla, which delivered 1.79 million vehicles last year. Tesla’s year wasn’t without issues. The US company posted its first annual deliveries decline in over a decade and only narrowly retained its lead over China’s BYD as the top seller of fully electric vehicles. BMW, meanwhile, saw its sales slip last year as costly recall compounded a demand slump in China. Sales of the BMW group’s cars dropped 4% to 2.45 million vehicles in 2024.  

Deutsche Bank’s new bonus structure to reward collaboration raises a question: How can teamwork be measured and managed, particularly inside a cut-throat Wall Street culture? The German bank changed how it’s evaluating staff this bonus season, giving more weight to non-financial metrics such as teamwork and collegiality. Each employee will now get a score on a five-point scale, calculated from two components: One is more quantitative and aligned with specific targets, while the other, more qualitative measures of behavior. It is not the first time a Wall Street firm has stressed the importance of collaboration. However, methods for tracking it leave much to be desired. Deutsche Bank now has to figure out how to create a coherent, firm-wide method to define and gauge teamwork. 

The European Union is considering expanding its investigation into whether Elon Musk’s X social network breached its content moderation rulebook, the European Commission’s Executive Vice President Henna Virkkunen said today on Bloomberg TV. “We are currently assessing if the scope is large enough,” she said in response to a question about the ongoing probe X is facing under the EU’s Digital Services Act. Meanwhile Apple’s revamped fees for app developers are under fresh scrutiny amid concerns they could drive up costs for software makers. The extra scrutiny comes as Silicon Valley bosses have urged Trump to challenge EU efforts to rein in the alleged abuses of Big Tech.

Russia’s oil proceeds to the state budget increased by almost a third last year to the highest since at least 2018, spurred by higher crude prices as the nation adapted to international sanctions. Oil-related taxes rose to 9.19 trillion rubles ($89.4 billion) 2024, up from 7.04 trillion rubles a year ago, according to Bloomberg calculations based on fresh finance ministry data. The oil-revenue spike reflects higher prices for Urals crude, Russia’s key export blend. Moscow has adapted to restrictions, including an ban on Russian oil imports, by using a massive shadow fleet of tankers and re-directing its oil sales to Asian clients.

Germany is about to report a second straight year of economic contraction, reminding politicians before February’s snap election of the daunting task they face. Analysts estimate gross domestic product grew 0.1% in the fourth quarter — insufficient to produce a positive result for the whole of 2024. A drop of 0.2% in output is anticipated, contrasting starkly with the 0.8% advance seen for the 20-nation euro zone. Wednesday’s release from Germany’s statistics office marks the first set of full-year numbers from a Group of Seven nation. But even if it yields a positive surprise, recent data leave little doubt that a genuine turnaround — especially in the reeling manufacturing sector — is some way off.

An operation to rescue illegal gold miners stranded in deep underground shafts in South Africa’s North West province got under way today, ending a months-long standoff over their fate. Civil rights groups say at least 100 people have died from starvation since October when the authorities sealed off shafts at the Buffelsfontein gold mine in Stilfontein, about 156 kilometers (97 miles) southwest of Johannesburg. It’s unclear exactly how many people remain underground and are unable to resurface, with some estimates putting the number at more than 1,000. 

Police officers and private security personnel at the opening of a mineshaft in Stilfontein. Photographer: Denis Farrell/AP

What You’ll Need to Know Tomorrow

For Your Commute

More than 12,000 structures have been consumed by the wildfires raging across Los Angeles this week. A brand-new house in Pacific Palisades designed and built by architect Greg Chasen in summer 2024 could have easily been one of them. None of the other homes around it survived. Yet on Jan. 9, after a night of devastation, Chasen found the house intact, barely touched by the fire. A photo of the house posted by the Malibu architect went viral on X, and a