| Weight-loss drugs have been one of the most closely watched areas of the stock market in recent years. Excitement about shots made by Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk have made the two companies some of the most valuable in the world. But the bar is high for next-generation treatments: recent trials from Amgen and Novo disappointed investors, sending shares of each company into a nosedive. On the flip side, positive results from small, early-stage studies last year drove billions in market value gains for obesity drug hopefuls. There are dozens of obesity trials slated to read out in 2025, according to analytics firm Airfinity. Here are some of the key catalysts we’ll be keeping an eye on this year. Lilly’s weight-loss pill Results from several key late-stage trials of Lilly’s orforglipron are expected by midyear, CEO Dave Ricks told Bloomberg TV Monday. Ricks said he thinks the drug could be approved as soon as early 2026. Weight-loss drugs that can be taken by mouth rather than injected are seen as the next frontier in the space. Lilly’s drug is one of the furthest along and it appears to be just as effective as shots. In mid-stage trials published in 2023, participants on the drug lost as much as 14.7% of their body weight over 36 weeks. Novo Nordisk’s next-generation shot Last month, Novo disappointed investors when its experimental shot CagriSema fell short of the 25% weight loss threshold the company had repeatedly touted. The company said it will start another trial in the first half of the year to find out how best to boost patients’ doses. It’s also running a head-to-head trial with Lilly’s Zepbound that’s expected to read out in late 2025. The company plans to seek regulatory approval for CagriSema toward the end of 2025, a spokeswoman said in a statement. Early data for Novo’s injectable amycretin, expected in the first quarter, will be another focus after CagriSema underdelivered, according to Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Michael Shah. Boehringer Ingelheim’s obesity newcomer Closely held Boehringer — one of Germany’s largest companies — could break into the red-hot obesity market with a drug that works in a slightly different way than Novo’s Wegovy and Lilly’s Zepbound. Late-stage trials of survodutide, developed in partnership with Danish biotech Zealand Pharma, are expected to wrap up in late 2025, according to a US clinical trials database. But because of the trials’ large size, we may not see results until early 2026. In a mid-stage trial, patients lost up to 19% of their body weight. Boehringer is testing the drug in obesity, as well as in liver disease, which could give it a competitive edge in a market currently dominated by Lilly and Novo. Innovent’s China challenger Obesity’s rising prevalence in China means as many as 140 million adults could be affected by 2030, according to Bloomberg Intelligence analysts Shah and Leslie Yang. Lilly and Novo’s shots have both won approval there, but the market remains largely untapped by local drugmakers. Innovent Biologics’ mazdutide, which was codeveloped with Lilly, could win Chinese approval this year, BI says. Patients in a late-stage trial in China lost up to 15% of their body weight in 48 weeks. Lilly is also testing the drug in US patients, with results expected this year. Other trials from Amgen, Pfizer, Structure Amgen’s monthly weight-loss shot fell short of investor expectations last year, but the company is due to report more detailed findings in the first half of 2025, according to BI. Pfizer will also have new data to share from dose-optimization studies of its once-a-day weight-loss pill danuglipron. After several setbacks in the space, Shah says Pfizer's competitiveness will hinge on these results. And obesity biotech Structure Therapeutics will have data from mid-stage trials of its weight-loss pill towards the end of the year, the company said in November. — Madison Muller | 
