Principals

1. Populism trumped?
2. Gaza breakthrough
3. Trump to call into Davos
4. Hegseth hearing
5. Special counsel report
6. Biden record
7. Immigration amendments

PDB: Republicans suggest conditions to California wildfire aid

Biden to establish new national monuments … Trump VA, Interior nominees appear for confirmation hearings … Bloomberg: China discussing sale of TikTok to Musk ahead of ban

Trump’s populist agenda on shaky ground

Donald Trump won big among working-class voters, and now it’s time for Congress to realize his campaign promises — something that’s been evolving into an impossible feat, Semafor’s Kadia Goba and Shelby Talcott report. Turns out, ending taxation on tips and overtime pay while weighing an expansion on a child tax credit is an expensive ask for a Republican conference trying to cut spending and reduce the deficit. Members see making good on their promises of building the border wall, reducing the size of government, and stemming illegal immigration as enough to appease voters. And raising taxes wouldn’t be a welcome solution for many in Congress or, likely, for Trump’s latest pro-business partners, even though the idea is being floated in the House. “We’re legitimately looking at, should we adjust the corporate rate from, say, 21% to 23%,” Rep. Clay Higgins, R-La., told Semafor.

Biden poised for win in Gaza talks

The US is on the cusp of successfully brokering a ceasefire and hostage deal between Israel and Hamas. In its first phase, the emerging agreement would see Hamas release 33 hostages, according to CNN, which said final talks were slated for Tuesday in Doha. The breakthrough would come days before President Biden leaves office, handing him a late but major win after months of struggle and a torrent of criticism over his Gaza policy. “We are close to a deal, and it can get done this week,” national security adviser Jake Sullivan told reporters, sounding more optimistic than he ever has on a deal’s prospects. The Biden team read in the incoming Trump team on the developments; Trump’s Middle East envoy, Steve Witkoff, attended talks with Biden envoy Brett McGurk. “These are not partisan issues, these are American national security issues,” Sullivan said.

Trump expected to video call into WEF

Trump is expected to appear at this year’s World Economic Forum in Davos via video conference, Semafor’s Shelby Talcott reported. The gathering of global elites is scheduled to take place the week of Trump’s inauguration, and the new administration’s MAGA policy plans are set to be an area of intense focus. Though Trump himself will attend remotely, he plans to send some of his Cabinet officials in person, Semafor previously reported. It’ll be an early foray into foreign and economic policy discussions for Trump and his aides under the new administration, as the president-elect forecasts disruptive tariffs that have US allies worried.

Trump’s defense pick set for contentious hearing

Pete Hegseth, Trump’s pick for defense secretary, is set for a grilling before the Senate Armed Services Committee today. Hegseth has faced sexual assault allegations (which he denies), making his path to confirmation among the shakier of the Trump nominees. Keep an eye on Sen. Joni Ernst, R-Iowa, who has signaled a willingness to press him. On the Democratic side, members are expected to raise a range of issues, including the alleged sexual assault, NATO, and his ability to manage a vast bureaucracy, a Democratic aide said. Still, most GOP committee members have signaled support for Hegseth, and he appears more likely than not to clear the committee with Republican votes. “Most of my colleagues are predisposed to let the president have his team, absent extraordinary circumstances,” said Sen. John Cornyn, R-Texas. Hegseth will be introduced by former Sen. Norm Coleman and incoming national security adviser Mike Waltz.

— Morgan Chalfant, Burgess Everett and Shelby Talcott

Trump would have been convicted, special counsel argues

Trump would have been convicted by a jury in DC for attempting to overturn the 2020 election results had he not been reelected, special counsel Jack Smith writes in a 137-page report released early Tuesday. “Indeed, but for Mr. Trump’s election and imminent return to the Presidency, the Office assessed that the admissible evidence was sufficient to obtain and sustain a conviction at trial,” reads the conclusion. The report comes days after Smith resigned from his post and includes “new insights into Smith’s investigative process, the challenges his team encountered, and the reasoning behind their decisions on what charges to pursue and which to abandon,” The Washington Post writes. While judge Aileen Cannon cleared the way for the release of the Jan. 6 report hours earlier, Smith’s volume on the classified documents case will stay secret for now.

Americans believe US lost ground under Biden

As Biden prepares to deliver his farewell address tomorrow evening, new Gallup polling shows that Americans do not believe his presidency ushered in much progress. Majorities said they believe the US lost ground over the past four years in addressing the federal debt, immigration, the wealth gap, the economy, the US’ place in the world, and crime, according to the December survey. Meanwhile, pluralities said they think the US has fallen behind in other areas like infrastructure, despite Biden presiding over the passage and implementation of a sweeping bipartisan infrastructure law. In fact, the only issue included in the poll that a plurality said the US has improved on is rights for gay, lesbian, and transgender people. Democrats were more likely than Republicans to see progress under Biden, but Republicans and Republican-leaning independents as a whole also reported progress on LGBT rights.

Dems debate Laken Riley Act endgame

Democrats are gaming out what will happen if their efforts to amend the Laken Riley Act fall short — will enough of them push the bill over the final filibuster? “I’m generally supportive of it,” Sen. Gary Peters, D-Mich., told Semafor, as the Senate voted 82-10 to advance the bill on Monday. “I don’t necessarily think all of those votes will be there if there aren’t amendments.” Indeed, some Democrats said they won’t support the bill absent more changes, which could include exempting Dreamers and requiring undocumented immigrants to be convicted of crimes, not just accused of them, before they can be detained. One Democrat who would vote no without changes, Wisconsin Sen. Tammy Baldwin, said Democrats “have the leverage to negotiate for amendments.” Lead Republican sponsor Sen. Katie Britt said of potential alterations: “I haven’t seen anything in writing. … Certainly wish I had something by now.”

— Burgess Everett

Blindspot: Greenland and Bluesky

Stories that are being largely ignored by either left-leaning or right-leaning outlets, curated with help from our partners at Ground News.

What the Left isn’t reading: A group of House Republicans introduced legislation that would allow Donald Trump to enter negotiations with Denmark about acquiring Greenland.

What the Right isn’t reading: A new campaign backed by Big Tech skeptics is trying to build a foundation for open-source social media platforms like Bluesky.

Beltway Newsletters

Punchbowl News: The White House is having discussions with members of the Jan. 6 select committee about whether to issue presidential pardons to lawmakers who sat on the panel.

Axios: Donald Trump’s Defense secretary pick Pete Hegseth will say in his opening statement today that he plans to restore “the warrior ethos to the Pentagon,” quickly deploy emerging technologies, and allow new defense companies to win government contracts.

Playbook: Sen. Mark Kelly, D-Ariz., plans to press Hegseth today on his lack of experience, but he also acknowledged that the former Fox & Friends host will be helped in the hearing by his TV experience. “...maybe he would have been a reasonable nominee to be the spokesperson for DOD,” Kelly said.

WaPo: The progressive group Justice Democrats is launching a new effort to recruit Democratic primary challengers.

White House

• President Biden announced another round of student debt forgiveness affecting 150,000 borrowers.
• Biden defended his foreign policy record during an address at the State Department, saying he was leaving the incoming Trump administration a “very strong hand to play.”

Congress

• House Speaker Mike Johnson suggested there be conditions attached to California wildfire aid, and confirmed there are discussions about potentially tying assistance to the debt limit.
• Democrats on the Senate Judiciary Committee reminded Attorney General Merrick Garland to preserve all documents related to congressional investigations, especially those involving Jan. 6. — ABC

Transition

• Donald Trump’s choice to lead NASA, Jared Isaacman, is attracting scrutiny from conservatives because of his past donations to Democrats. — Washington Examiner
• Trump’s advisers are looking at gradually increasing tariffs using emergency powers, in an effort to avoid spiking inflation. — Bloomberg