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In less than a week, Donald Trump will no longer be U.S. President-elect and the auto industry should, in theory, know right away whether his tariff threats for everywhere, but above all Mexico and China, are real.

Since Trump won the presidential election in November, automakers and major suppliers have been rather quiet about the game-planning they have been doing for the various tariffs he might impose.

But last week, a few major suppliers – Bosch, Continental, Panasonic Energy – and Honda opened up at CES in Las Vegas about the options they’re weighing ahead of time. Some of them gave details in interviews with my Reuters colleague Abhirup Roy and you can read about them here.

They are looking at ways to remove tariff-prone parts or move to markets closer to the U.S., or away from Mexico – though not necessarily into the United States. But they’re ready to roll as soon as Trump makes his move.

 Which brings us to today’s Auto File…

It’s official. 2024 was a bad year for German automakers in China.

Porsche in particular had an annus horribilis in China, with sales plunging 28% as Chinese consumers increasingly held back on luxury goods because of faltering economic growth and an ongoing real estate crisis.

But Volkswagen, BMW and Mercedes-Benz all saw sales fall in China amid stiff competition from local automakers, which has been a bitter pill to swallow as they have been reliant on Chinese sales to boost profits.

To make matters worse, as my Reuters colleague Victoria Waldersee reports, their sales of premium models at home in Germany have also fallen because of economic uncertainty. You can read about it here.

Volkswagen has already announced a deal with its German union for 35,000 future job cuts and sharp capacity reductions to counter cheaper Chinese rivals and weak demand in Europe.

But the German auto industry’s winter of discontent may well be far from over.

Cars from China's GAC, not for sale in U.S.. Reuters/Rebecca Cook.

In one of its last acts before exiting stage right, Joe Biden’s administration has finalized rules this week cracking down on Chinese vehicle software and hardware in connected cars. You can read about it here.

First proposed in September, this move effectively bans virtually all Chinese cars and trucks from the U.S. market. It is thus far more effective than tariffs at keeping out Chinese-made EVs or even those made by Chinese-owned brands that had hoped to build cars in U.S. factories.

Polestar, for instance, has said that the ban would “effectively prohibit” the sale of its cars, even those manufactured in the United States.     

Biden added to Chinese tariffs imposed by Trump, and the Inflation Reduction Act has further encouraged automakers and suppliers to avoid Chinese suppliers.

While Trump has promised yet more tariffs on Chinese imports, he has also said he wants to incentivize Chinese automakers to come to make cars in the United States. So it remains to be seen if the new rules will remain in place under Trump.

A ton of Chinese cars, awaiting export — China Daily via REUTERS 

China’s car export growth is expected to slow in 2025 to around 5.8% versus a hefty 19.3% increase last year as tariffs in Europe on Chinese-made EVs are expected to further hit electric car exports.

The China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM) said EV exports fell 10.4% last year after rising 80.9% in 2023. Meanwhile, plug-in hybrid exports were up 190% after posting growth of 47.8% in 2023.

China ranked as the world's largest auto exporter ahead of Japan for the second year running in 2024 despite the EU tariffs introduced in late October.

CAAM forecasts Chinese vehicle sales will rise 4.7% to 32.9 million units this year, following a 4.5% rise in 2024.

BYD brought hundreds of Chinese workers to Brazil on irregular visas to build a factory, a key labor inspector told my Reuters colleagues Fabio Teixeira and Luciana Novaes Magalhaes, bringing fresh Brazilian labor problems for the Chinese automaker. You can read about it here.

A total of 163 of the workers, who were hired by BYD contractor Jinjiang, were found last month to be working in what Brazilian authorities described as "slavery-like conditions."

Liane Durao, who spearheaded the labor authorities’ probe in Bahia state, told Reuters that BYD has pledged to comply with local labor laws for the workers it still employs in the country.

Durao said the 163 workers are in the process of leaving Brazil, adding that BYD would be fined for each one. She did not say how much BYD will end up paying.

In December, the labor prosecutor's office described the workers as human trafficking victims. Jinjiang had withheld the passports of 107 of the workers, investigators said.

Sweden's Volvo Group will go ahead with a planned $700-million heavy-truck factory in Mexico, despite Trump’s tariff threats, its CEO told Reuters.

Hyundai Motor is launching an $18,000 compact electric car in Japan to penetrate a market dominated by local giants focused on petrol and hybrid vehicle technologies.

BYD will launch its Atto 2 compact electric SUV in Europe in February, despite EU tariffs on Chinese-made EVs.

Stellantis achieved its goal of cutting its