The betting is that perhaps just minutes after Trump is sworn into office, he and his staff will be hammering out executive orders and statements of intent on social media. So brace for market-moving news on tariffs, regulations, crypto, energy, immigration, fiscal policy, the dollar and the Fed. On tariffs, the base case for Morgan Stanley strategists is “fast announcements and slow implementation.” But they acknowledge investors are prepared for speed on both fronts. If so, they see the dollar appreciating — especially against the Chinese yuan, Canadian dollar and Mexican peso — and short-term US Treasury yields rising faster than their long-term counterparts. It doesn't have to be negative news. “An absence of significant tariffs from the roster, for example, may trigger a global rally,” writes Paul Dobson for Bloomberg Markets Live. With US markets closed, Asia may get the first chance to react. The earnings season will also heat up. Here are some of the highlights: - Tuesday: Charles Schwab, 3M and Netflix
- Wednesday: Procter & Gamble, J&J and Abbott Labs
- Thursday: American Airlines and Texas Instruments
The Bank of Japan is expected to raise interest rates on Friday, and Trump is scheduled to speak virtually at the World Economic Forum in Davos on Thursday. Purchasing manager indexes around the global for January will also draw attention. See the full economic calendar here. —Simon Kennedy |