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Hi, Sean Collins here, host of TEx (the newsletter). In just a little while — maybe by the time you read this — Donald Trump will be back in the White House. 

Everyone, including me, wants to know what he’s going to do with his newfound power. The problem is an unanswerable question: No one knows what the next four years are going to be like.

But here at Vox, we do try to help people think through tough, unanswerable questions. So, to help you make sense of the administration to come, I reached out to our politics team, and asked each and every member one simple question: What’s one thing you think it’s important for people to keep in mind as Trump returns to power?

Here’s what they had to say:

The first time Trump was president, no one’s theory of how he’d govern was exactly right.  

Trump’s most outspoken critics underestimated how, well, normal his administration would be on many policy matters. Good or bad, much of it was normal Republican stuff. Plus, though Trump often sounded unhinged, there was often at least some method in his madness, as he remained constrained by institutions and checks on his power, and could often be convinced to back down from his bluster.

And yet, there was Trump’s attempt to steal the 2020 election — just one of many instances where he shockingly challenged long-standing democratic norms to try and get what he wanted, going far further than the political cognoscenti expected, and defying his apologists’ claims that he wasn’t as dangerous as he seemed. 

So, when will second-term Trump be surprisingly normal? And when will he push the envelope in ways that risk destabilizing the country and the world?

—Andrew Prokop

Hossein Fatemi/Middle East Images/AFP/Getty Images

The first Trump administration reshaped the conversation around immigration for the long haul, successfully framing it around the border and enforcement, while ignoring the contributions of immigrants living in the US. 

This time around, he’s said he’d like to go further. However, the policy changes Trump is reportedly considering — mass detention and deportations, ending birthright citizenship, and shutting down the border — are not a real fix to an immigration system badly overburdened and in need of modernization, or to the factors that cause people to migrate in the first place. 

That is, even if Trump is successful in radically altering immigration policy, he’s unlikely to succeed in “fixing” immigration. An actual solution would, for starters, update legal pathways to the US to fit its economic and humanitarian needs, increase staffing levels across the system (not just among immigration enforcement), and quickly and fairly process people at the border.

—Nicole Narea

The incoming Trump administration is riven by competing factions. And its internal power struggles could have profound consequences for the next four years of public policy.

Some in Trump’s orbit want to scale back his tariff proposals, while others (including the president) wish to stick to a more radically protectionist agenda. 

Incoming Secretary of State Marco Rubio seeks to confront Beijing and protect Taiwan, while Trump adviser Elon Musk maintains close business ties to the Chinese Communist Party and has expressed opposition to anti-China trade policies.

Musk and other pro-Trump tech moguls support guest worker visas for highly skilled foreigners, while deputy chief of staff/homeland security adviser Stephen Miller aims to restrict such visas.

One version of MAGA could lead us toward a global trade war, mass deportation, and confrontation with China — another, towards incremental changes in economic and foreign policies. Much therefore depends on who wins the Trump administration’s civil wars.

—Eric Levitz

Justin Merriman/Bloomberg/Getty Images

I think it will be important to hold two ideas in our minds at the same time with this new administration: that Trump and his allies will overstep their popularity, and that Democrats will have to pick their fights in order to be an effective opposition.

Trump and congressional Republicans are probably going to operate as if they have a huge popular mandate behind them. Yes, it might seem like all signs are pointing to them having one, but remember this: Trump's popularity is still historically low and it will probably drop once he begins to govern. Republicans control Congress by single-digit margins. 

Still, Democrats are on the back foot. You can probably expect they won’t operate as the same kind of resistance they did eight years ago. They’ll have to evolve, bide their time, and not reflexively condemn Trump every time he does something. The bet is Trump will fumble things, giving Democrats the opportunity — if they are strategic — to capitalize on his mistakes. 

—Christian Paz

It has become unfashionable to talk about Trump as a threat to American democracy. As if the fact that he won fair and square, and is being treated normally by much of the American elite, has somehow neutralized his inclination to break rules and shatter guardrails.

That tendency, of course, has not been neutralized. The question for the new administration is not whether Trump will take actions that damage American democracy, but how severe that damage will be.

The most important thing in the next four years will be tracking specific policy initiatives — such as Schedule F reclassification of federal employees — that contribute to democratic decline, and developing strategies to avert the worst outcomes.

—Zack Beauchamp

Rebecca Noble/Getty Images

Tracking Trump is overwhelming for anyone. 

He’ll make big proclamations on social media that go nowhere. His team will make major new policies while insisting that nothing has changed. And in the media, all of that will be surrounded by a swirl of accusations and defenses. 

So how is anyone to separate fact from fiction? 

It starts with patience. When Trump speaks, wait to see if he backs it up. When you hear about major changes, read past the headlines, and seek out outlets that aim to clarify, rather than amplify, the news. A clear-eyed understanding of the Trump administration is possible — it’s just not always possible in real time.

—Patrick Reis

The politics team, and all of Vox, will have a lot more for you on Trump and his administration in the days, months, and years to come. As the incoming president likes to say, stay tuned!

P.S.: Happy Martin Luther King Jr. Day!

Paige Vickers/Vox; Getty Images

Experiments in insurance: I don’t know anyone who loves their health insurance, or the general insurance system, so it was no surprise to learn from Dylan Scott that people are gambling on an alternative. But is doing so really a good idea?

Why this guy? Trump won, but there’s a lot of disagreement about what he did right and what Democrats did wrong. Eric Levitz shares his hypothesis. 

F for failure: Kelsey Piper makes the case that California’s leaders failed their constituents before the fires, and are continuing that losing streak as we speak.

Playing with fire: Apparently people have been betting on the wildfires. That’s not cool, but this piece about the phenomenon (and online betting in general) is. [Business Insider]

Inside man: Stephen Miller, an integral part of the first Trump administration, is also back in the White House today, and more powerful than ever. Here’s a great refresher on who he is, what he wants, and why you need to pay attention to him. [New York Times]

$$$$: How much will the immigration reform bill known as the Laken Riley Act cost? At first it was $3.2B, then it was $83B over three years, now $26.9B in the first year. What we do know is, a lot of money. [NPR]

Brandon Bell/Getty Images

TikTok lost its Supreme Court case. That means, by law, it should be banned now. But Biden say's he's not enforcing that law, and it's not clear what Trump plans to do. What does it all mean? Ian Millhiser explains, sadly not via a TikTok. 

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