India Edition
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by Menaka Doshi

Welcome to India Edition, I’m Menaka Doshi. I’m at the World Economic Forum’s annual meeting in Davos, Switzerland, this week to bring you a ringside view of how top Indian and global leaders are preparing for a potentially volatile year of trade ructions, market uncertainty and the return of Donald Trump.

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Today from Davos: Two marquee speakers who may lead the way for Modi, and the resistance lives on.

Deficit Slayers and Deregulators

From Bloomberg House to Ukraine House, Davos delegates gathered to watch Trump’s inauguration as the US president promised a “golden age” for his country, while taking on “a radical and corrupt establishment.”  

Here in this ski town and across global markets, there’s hope that Trump’s promised tariffs will be more nuanced rather than blunt. Among dozens of executive orders already signed, there was a noticeable absence of any on tariffs — but Trump told reporters in the Oval Office he plans to impose duties of 25% on Mexico and China by Feb. 1.

There’s also keen interest in how he intends to control America’s yawning deficit (now almost $2 trillion) since adding to it in his first term. His pick for Treasury secretary, Scott Bessent, aims to roughly halve the deficit to 3% of GDP by 2028 on the back of more tax cuts, spending restraint, deregulation and cheap energy.

A broadcast of the US inauguration at Ukraine House in Davos. Photographer: Stefan Wermuth/Bloomberg

Slashing deficits and deregulation have another hero here in Davos: Javier Milei, whose second outing to the WEF’s annual meeting is something of a victory run.

The president of Argentina achieved the fiscal surplus he promised at last year’s visit (a feat not seen in over a decade) by slashing public spending and pension payments and increasing some taxes.

Javier Milei arrives for a special address at Davos. Photographer: Hollie Adams/Bloomberg

Trump and Milei are worlds apart in their approach to austerity and second to Modi’s calibrated fiscal deficit reduction after the pandemic. But they’ve promised one thing that Modi has yet to push hard for: deregulation.

“A lot of the things do need to be solved internally in India,” Axis Bank CEO Amitabh Chaudhry told me as we discussed the economic slowdown and its impact on the financial industry. The banker sees little room in the budget for any fiscal stimulus to boost growth.

India may not need stimulus, or at best only a narrowly targeted one, Anish Shah, Mahindra Group CEO and managing director, told me when we met yesterday. India’s economic fundamentals are strong, and the slowdown will last two to three quarters, he added, urging the government to stay the course of infrastructure spending that has a multiplier effect.

A quick economic recovery will make great news, but as my colleague Andy Mukherjee writes in Bloomberg Opinion, it’s also an opportunity lost to fix “the great unease of doing business in India.”

Davos Highlights

Spotted in Davos: The Resistance Lives On

Smash WEF. Tax the rich. Economy for all, not for a few.

Every year protesters at Davos keep it real — their angry T-shirts and banners chiding private-jet flying billionaires attending a conference, unaffordable by most, to discuss burning issues such as climate change and social justice.

A protest against the World Economic Forum on Jan. 19, 2025.  Photographer: Hollie Adams/Bloomberg

Just to be clear, I flew commercial.

Thanks for reading India Edition. I’ll be back tomorrow with news on a kingmaker and India’s fuel supplies. —Menaka

Yesterday’s India Edition: Can India Generate Buzz at Davos Even as Growth Slows?

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