Supply Lines
President Donald Trump kept people guessing about tariffs for almost all of Inauguration Day, before dropping a bombshell.Trump held off on
View in browser
Bloomberg

Supply Lines is now exclusively for Bloomberg.com subscribers. As a loyal reader, we’ll keep sending it to you for a limited time. If you’d like to continue receiving Supply Lines, and gain unlimited digital access to all of Bloomberg.com, we invite you to subscribe now at the special rate of $129 for your first year (usually $299).

President Donald Trump kept people guessing about tariffs for almost all of Inauguration Day, before dropping a bombshell.

Trump held off on unveiling China-specific tariffs on his first day in office, instead ordering his administration to address unfair trade practices globally and investigate whether Beijing had complied with a deal signed during his first term.

For much of the US holiday on Monday, stock futures gained on the apparent gradualist approach, while the dollar declined.

Then, in the Oval Office just before 8 p.m. local time, at what would have been for many other presidents a perfunctory interaction with the press after a long day of pageantry, Trump held forth for about 45 minutes.

Read More: Trump’s Tariff Shifts Are Whiplash Warning for Corporate America

Among the news that he made: that he plans to enact previously threatened tariffs of as much as 25% on Mexico and Canada by Feb. 1, reiterating his contention that America’s largest trading partners are letting undocumented migrants and drugs flood into the country.

Jittery Markets

The Canadian dollar and Mexican peso, which had rallied earlier Monday on signs Trump would hold off from immediately imposing sweeping tariffs, each fell as much as 1.4% against the greenback. Bloomberg’s dollar gauge bounced back — a sudden reversal that underscored just how jittery market participants are on any news around duties and their impact on the global economy.

Meanwhile, investors in Chinese assets breathed a sigh of relief that the world’s No. 2 economy had avoided Trump’s tariff plans, at least for now. He also temporarily halted a ban on TikTok in the US, granting the company and its Chinese parent ByteDance more time to reach a deal for the popular app.

Read More: South Africa’s Kganyago Says Trump Tariffs Pose Inflation Risk

But Trump didn’t let Brussels rest too easily after an action-packed first day back in the White House. He reiterated a call for the European Union to buy more American oil and gas if the bloc wants to avoid tariffs. “The one thing they can do quickly is buy our oil and gas,” he told reporters. “We will straighten that out with tariffs, or they have to buy our oil and gas.”

  • Here’s a line from the Bloomberg Economics hot take: “Tariffs delayed don’t mean tariffs denied. Ultimately, Trump’s desire to rebalance trade relations, raise tariff revenue to offset the cost of extending the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, and slow China’s rise as a geopolitical rival mean we do expect a sharp increase in duties on US imports.”

Related Reading:

Eric Martin in Washington

Click here for more of Bloomberg.com’s most-read stories about trade, supply chains and shipping. 

Charted Territory

Stalling out | European car sales barely grew last year as persistent inflation, higher borrowing costs and apathy toward electric models led consumers to hold off on buying vehicles. New-car registrations in the region edged up 0.9% to 13 million units from a year earlier after a bounce in December, the European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association said Tuesday. Sales of fully electric vehicles fell 1.3% after countries including Germany ended subsidies, dragging their share of the total market down to 15%.

Today’s Must Reads

  • The Houthis said they will stop attacking US and UK vessels in the Red Sea area in response to the Israel-Hamas ceasefire agreement, following a more than year-long campaign that’s redirected global trade.
  • South Korea’s government expressed concern about the “significant” impact on its economy likely to stem from policy changes under Trump and will seek talks with the US president to discuss cooperation as soon as possible. Meanwhile, South Korea’s early trade data showed weak export growth so far this month.
  • Trump’s tariff threats stand to hurt American economic interests because they would disturb auto supply chains where the US is strong and drive up consumer prices, said the head of the Canadian unit of General Motors.
  • The Bank of Canada’s survey of businesses painted a picture of an economy that’s close to finding its footing before facing Trump’s trade policies that may potentially destabilize it.
  • The EU needs to accelerate its efforts to boost its competitiveness and implement some of the recommendations made by European Central Bank president Mario Draghi, a senior euro-area official said. Meanwhile, EU finance chiefs warned against precipitous moves to counter Trump’s tariff threats on goods from the 27-nation bloc.
  • Most CEOs expect global economic growth to accelerate this year despite growing trade tensions and the threat of higher tariffs, a survey by PwC found.

On the Bloomberg Terminal

  • Trump ordered the US Trade Representative to undertake a review of, and identify, any unfair trade practices by other countries and recommend appropriate actions to remedy such practices.
  • Vietnam and the Czech Republic have agreed to elevate diplomatic relations between the two countries to strategic partnership, according to a statement on Vietnamese government’s website.
  • Run SPLC after an equity ticker on Bloomberg to show critical data about a company's suppliers, customers and peers.
  • Use the AHOY function to track global commodities trade flows.
  • See DSET CHOKE for a dataset to monitor shipping chokepoints. 
  • For freight dashboards, see BI RAIL, BI TRCK and BI SHIP and BI 3PLS
  • Click HERE for automated stories about supply chains.
  • On the Bloomberg Terminal, type NH FWV for FreightWaves content.
  • See BNEF for BloombergNEF’s analysis of clean energy, advanced transport, digital industry, innovative materials, and commodities.

Like Supply Lines?

Don’t keep it to yourself. Colleagues and friends can sign up here. We also publish Economics Daily, a briefing on the latest in global economics.

For even more: Follow @economics on Twitter and subscribe to Bloomberg.com for unlimited access to trusted, data-driven journalism and gain expert analysis from exclusive subscriber-only newsletters.

How are we doing? We want to hear what you think about this newsletter. Let our trade tsar know.

Follow Us

Like getting this newsletter? Subscribe to Bloomberg.com for unlimited access to trusted, data-driven journalism and subscriber-only insights.

Before it’s here, it’s on the Bloomberg Terminal. Find out more about how the Terminal delivers information and analysis that financial professionals can’t find anywhere else. Learn more.

Want to sponsor this newsletter? Get in touch here.

You received this message because you are subscribed to Bloomberg's Supply Lines newsletter. If a friend forwarded you this message, sign up here to get it in your inbox.
Unsubscribe
Bloomberg.com
Contact Us
Bloomberg L.P.
731 Lexington Avenue,
New York, NY 10022
Ads Powered By Liveintent