It’s just one day into his presidency and Donald Trump already has the market on its toes, guessing what major moves are coming next.
He signed a flurry of executive orders on his first day back in the White House Monday on everything from immigration and energy to diversity and artificial intelligence.
But markets were more interested in what he didn’t do. Trump had threatened to impose levies on Mexico and Canada on day one but that didn’t
happen. However, in comments to reporters in the Oval Office late in the day he said he expects to hit both neighboring countries with 25% tariffs on Feb. 1.
The U.S. dollar bore the brunt of the volatility,
falling as the inauguration passed with no mention of levies before paring losses after Trump’s late remarks. The greenback’s biggest gains came against the Canadian dollar and Mexican peso.
Investors are grappling with what it all means. Maybe the delay allows time for negotiations to take place, a deal to be reached, or for tariffs to be watered down. Or perhaps the president just had more pressing things he wanted to address on his first day and still plans to be just as aggressive on trade.
An expected review of the existing trade deal between the U.S. and China also raises more questions than answers.
Cryptocurrencies, an asset class familiar with volatility, also had a roller-coaster inauguration day. Bitcoin hit a record high, seemingly buoyed by the launch of Trump and Melania meme coins, before sinking later Monday.
Trump’s comeback means a return to the days of markets
reacting to out-of-the-blue comments, social media posts, and policy announcements as investors try to second guess what comes next.
Buckle up, Trump 2.0 is just getting started.
—Callum Keown
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Levies on Mexico, Canada Could Come as Soon as Feb. 1
While signing a flurry of executive orders, President Trump said he was
considering imposing tariffs of 25% on imports from Mexico and Canada as soon as Feb. 1.
What’s Next: Some analysts have said that early tariff announcements should be seen as an opening salvo and leverage for long negotiations with countries over agreements on trade and national security.
—Joe Light
What President’s Pledge on EV ‘Mandate’ Means for Tesla
President Donald Trump vowed to eliminate the electric vehicle mandate in his inaugural address. While technically such an order doesn’t exist, there are rules requiring auto makers to sell a quota of all-battery
vehicles to avoid fines. Trump’s promise will have implications for Tesla, the EV maker run by billionaire Elon Musk, and the U.S. auto industry.
- “We will end the Green New Deal and we will revoke the electric vehicle mandate, saving our auto industry and keeping my sacred pledge to our great American autoworkers,” said
Trump in a speech from the Capitol. “You’ll be able to buy the car of your choice.”
- There is no “mandate,” but the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) does have rules requiring auto makers to sell a quota of all-battery electric vehicles to avoid hefty emissions-related fines. Trump’s move might require extra steps to override the California Air Resources Board, or CARB, which regulates Californian emissions, and several other states also follow its standards.
- Ending the mandate, and “the Green New Deal,” could also mean removing the federal EV purchase tax credit worth up to $7,500 for qualifying EV purchases. Removing that completely will require legislation.
- Americans bought about 1.3 million all-electric cars in 2024,
accounting for about 8% of all new cars sold. Current EPA standards imply that roughly half of new vehicle sales would be all-electric by 2032. That indicates about 27% average annual EV sales growth between 2024 and 2032, an aggressive target.
What’s Next: Coming into Tuesday trading, Tesla stock was up about 70% since the Nov. 5 U.S. presidential election. Despite the likelihood of reduced federal support, investors still believe Trump 2.0 will benefit the EV maker.
—Al Root
TikTok’s Future Remains Murky
After going dark for roughly 12 hours over the weekend, President Donald Trump issued an executive order delaying
a TikTok ban for 75 days.
- TikTok users regained access to their favorite video-sharing app on Sunday after Trump said he would delay implementing the ban when he took office on Monday. While TikTok is still available to users who have already downloaded the app, it remains unavailable to download on the Apple App.
- Now ByteDance has until April to sell TikTok or face another ban. Trump said he wants a joint venture in which the U.S. is a 50% owner of TikTok. On top of that, the Chinese government has said it must approve any deal.
- The law that banned TikTok was passed by bipartisan
members of Congress and signed by then-President Biden in 2024. It cited the potential for Beijing-based ByteDance to use TikTok to spread propaganda or share U.S. user data with the Chinese government, which TikTok’s CEO has disputed.
What’s Next: Wedbush analyst Dan Ives expects a slew of bids for the app. In his view, TikTok is one bargaining chip in the coming U.S.-China tariff negotiations, with an estimated price tag of $40 billion to $50 billion.
—Janet H. Cho, Angela Palumbo, and Bill Alpert
Netflix and Airlines Are Earnings Highlights This Week
Streaming service Netflix is the highlight of this week’s holiday-shortened earnings calendar.
- Netflix after the market closes today is expected to report earnings of $1.83 billion on sales of $10.11 billion, according to analysts surveyed by FactSet. They estimate adjusted earnings of $4.28 per share and 290.87 million subscribers for the December quarter, up from 282.72 million in the September quarter.
