Daily News Brief

January 21, 2025

Top of the Agenda

U.S. President Donald Trump signed dozens of executive actions upon taking office yesterday, promising a return to the “America First” approach of his first term while showing increased willingness to use presidential authority for sweeping overhauls of foreign and domestic policy. He issued broad directives to limit immigration and ordered a scale-down of U.S. multilateral commitments, including withdrawals from the Paris climate agreement and World Health Organization. Trump pledged to strengthen the U.S. economy using tariffs and suggested expanding U.S. territory, including taking back the Panama Canal. But he also voiced skepticism of involvement in foreign conflicts, saying success will be measured “not only by the battles we win, but also by the wars that we end. And perhaps most importantly, the wars we never get into.”

While Trump held off on immediately announcing new tariffs, he launched a review of trade policy and warned that Canada and Mexico could see 25 percent duties as soon as February 1. Other executive orders were more immediate, with refugee admissions due to end in days U.S. foreign assistance programs suspended. In a first, foreign leaders such as those of Italy and Argentina attended the inauguration, as did China’s vice president. (WSJ, AP, Bloomberg) 

Analysis

“Trump’s second term foreign policy will likely be far more disruptive than his first was. When he took office in 2017, he unknowingly surrounded himself with foreign policy officials who rejected his worldview. This so-called axis of adults sought from the start to deflect and redirect his foreign policy impulses. They succeeded for a while. But ultimately, he pushed them aside, thereby demonstrating the fundamental truth that presidents matter more than their advisers,”  CFR expert James M. Lindsay writes for The Water’s Edge.

“There was little emphasis on the world at a time [when] there is a major land war in Europe, conflict in the Middle East, and growing instability in the Indo-Pacific. The 47th president declared his ambition to be a peacemaker and to measure success most of all ‘by the wars we never get into.’ Fair enough. But what kind of peacemaker? We want a wary peacemaker, not one who will agree to peace at too high a price, be it with Russia over Ukraine or China over Taiwan,” CFR President Emeritus Richard N. Haass writes on Substack.

CFR’s Jonathan Masters and Diana Roy lay out how Trump can immediately alter foreign policy through executive orders. 

United States

Trump declared an emergency at the U.S. southern border yesterday, enabling use of military action there and separately directing government agencies to restart a program in which asylum seekers wait in Mexico for their claims to be processed. Mexico’s foreign minister yesterday said that Mexico did not agree with the restart of the program known as “Remain in Mexico” and aimed to adjust it. Trump’s orders also aimed to revoke birthright citizenship and laid out a policy directive to recognize only two sexes, male and female. 

Trump also issued clemency to all of the almost 1,600 people who had been charged in the January 6, 2021, Capitol riot. That followed a move by former President Joe Biden earlier in the day to pardon critics of Trump—including investigators of the January 6 attack—as well as family members. (White House, NBC, Politico, NYT, CNN)

Pacific Rim

After the U.S. Senate unanimously confirmed Marco Rubio yesterday, he is due to discuss the Quad diplomatic partnership with counterparts from Australia, India, and Japan today. Quad countries stepped up their defense cooperation under the Joe Biden administration; Australian Foreign Minister Penny Wong said today’s meeting showed the countries’ “iron-clad commitment” to the partnership. (ABC, AP)

U.S./China: China’s foreign ministry signaled openness yesterday to allowing a sale or merger of TikTok in a reversal of its previous position. The comments followed Trump’s proposal Sunday to create a joint venture with 50 percent U.S. ownership for TikTok to be allowed to operate. The app shut down in the United States this weekend, before the incoming president said he would not take enforcement action. (WSJ, SCMP)

CFR expert Kat Duffy argues the TikTok ban harms U.S. interests at home and abroad.

South and Central Asia

Two U.S. citizens were exchanged for Khan Mohammed, a Taliban figure previously jailed on terrorism charges in California, the Taliban’s foreign ministry said. The family of Ryan Corbett, an American who had been held by the Taliban, said he was freed, while unnamed U.S. officials told media outlets that U.S. citizen William McKenty was also released. Before leaving office, Biden said he urged the Taliban to also release George Glezmann and Mahmoud Habibi and for the Trump administration to continue efforts to free them. (AP, CNN)

China/Myanmar: Beijing brokered a cease-fire that began Saturday between Myanmar’s military and rebel group the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), the Chinese foreign ministry said. The MNDAA said it had taken over a military base near the Chinese border last July. (Reuters) 

Middle East and North Africa

More than nine hundred aid trucks entered the Gaza Strip yesterday on the second day of the Israel-Hamas cease-fire, the UN humanitarian office said. They followed 630 aid trucks that entered Sunday, the highest on a single day since the war began. Some 92 percent of homes in Gaza were destroyed or damaged and 90 percent of the population was displaced, with 1.8 million people in urgent need of shelter and essentials, the UN said. Israel released ninety Palestinian prisoners and Hamas freed three Israeli hostages over the weekend, while Yemen’s Houthi rebels said they would limit their attacks on international shipping to only target Israeli-registered vessels, the Financial Times reported. (Reuters, NYT, CNN, FT)

CFR President Michael Froman discusses the cease-fire and its implications.

U.S./Syria: The mother of missing U.S. journalist Austin Tice met with Syria’s new transitional leader about efforts to find him. Tice was abducted in 2012. His mother Debra said Syria’s new leaders expressed determination to find Tice but that the upheaval of the recent rebel takeover made the search feel “like starting all over again.” (NYT)

Sub-Saharan Africa

They join some four hundred Kenyan police already leading a UN-backed mission against gang violence in Haiti. Around ten countries have pledged some three thousand personnel for the mission, but few have been sent. (Reuters)

Robert I. Rotberg and CFR expert Ebenezer Obadare explain why the mission has had lackluster results in Haiti so far. 

DRC: Both the Democratic Republic of Congo army and M23 rebels used explosive weapons in densely populated areas between last January and July, actions that “likely constitute war crimes,” Amnesty International said on Sunday. An uptick in fighting has displaced more than 237,000 people since the start of this year, the UN refugee agency said. (AP)

Europe

Under the deal announced Friday, Mexico will remove tariffs as high as 100 percent on European Union (EU) goods such as poultry, pasta, and wine. Mexico will also be able to export duty-free electric vehicles if they include at least 60 percent Mexican or EU-made parts. (FT)

China/Russia: Russian President Vladimir Putin proposed deepening bilateral partnership in a call yesterday with Chinese President Xi Jinping, according to a Russian readout. (Reuters)

Americas

Panama’s comptroller’s office announced an audit yesterday of the subsidiary of a Hong Kong firm which controls two ports near the Panama Canal to ensure “the efficient and transparent use of public resources,” it said. Trump has claimed without proof that China is operating the waterway, and threatened to “take back” the canal for the United States. Panama’s president posted yesterday that the canal will remain under Panama’s control. (Bloomberg, BBC)

Colombia: President Gustavo Petro said he will declare a state of emergency after clashes between rebel groups near the country’s border with Venezuela killed more than eighty people in recent days. It was one of the deadlies spates of violence in the country since its 2016 peace agreement between the government and what was then Colombia’s largest guerrilla group. (AP, WaPo)

CFR expert Will Freeman and CFR’s Stephen Holmes explore the breakdown of Petro’s efforts to negotiate with armed groups.

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Council on Foreign Relations

58 East 68th Street — New York, NY 10065