Good morning.

B.C.’s new Finance Minister, Brenda Bailey, declined to answer a yes-or-no question Monday with either a yes or no when she was asked if the provincial government would follow through on its keystone election promise to make life a little easier for families by sending most of them a $1,000 cheque.

But anyone listening to her carefully chosen words has a pretty good idea of what the answer probably is.

“In times of great economic uncertainty, it is wise to wait and I think you’re going to see us being really careful about where expenditures are in this budget,” she said as part of a longer answer to the question of whether people can expect to get the rebate.

Since November 25, when Donald Trump announced 25 per cent tariffs, “we have put a pause on a number of different potential responses in terms of affordability in order for us to look very seriously at the impact of these tariffs,” Bailey said in response to a similar question.

First thing Monday morning, as Trump was sworn in as U.S. President, it appeared that his administration was backtracking slightly on its declaration of imposing 25 per cent tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports. Instead, the U.S. government would study trade policies and evaluate trade relations with those countries, as well as China, U.S. media reported.

But by the end of the day, Trump was once again musing about the tariffs, saying in the Oval Office that he would impose them Feb. 1.

The B.C. government has estimated Trump’s tariffs could erase 124,000 jobs and lead to a cumulative loss of $69-billion in economic activity between 2025 and 2028, pushing the province into recession.

The so-called grocery rebate was a central theme of the NDP’s campaign. The cost of it – some $1.8 billion in 2025 – was the single most expensive promise made by the party and amounted to just more than half of the extra $3-billion in extra spending the NDP promised it would deliver.

The party went on to win the October election, but just barely. The Conservatives, who had run on a platform of returning to “fiscal sanity,” won 44 seats to the NDP’s 47. Their platform was also pricey, costing about $2.6-billion in increased government spending and reduced revenues.

Even before Trump’s tariff threats, Premier David Eby was unclear about when the grocery rebate would be rolled out. The business community has slammed the promise as being economically reckless and the Premier’s mandate letters to his new cabinet indicate an interest in fiscal restraint.

Bailey’s new mandate letter from the Premier, released late last week, is a recipe for budget restraint, with a strong push to make the province more attractive to private-sector investment.

B.C.’s estimate on the tariffs’ impact is founded on what might be worst-case scenarios – that the 25-per-cent tariffs are imposed early and remain in place for the duration of his term. As well, finance officials assume that Canada will retaliate in kind. In addition, the figures include key economic indicators and inputs that are shaped by other factors such as the recent changes to Ottawa’s immigration targets, which will have an effect on the labour market and demographics.

Eby said last week the tariff threat amounts to “a declaration of economic war.”

The current forecasts have the economy growing by 1.9 per cent in 2025 as interest rates and inflation ease. Under the preliminary assessment, B.C. is heading for recession, with the province’s real GDP projected to potentially decline by 0.6 per cent year over year in both 2025 and 2026.

The next B.C. budget is slated for March 4.

This is the weekly British Columbia newsletter written by B.C. Editor Wendy Cox. If you’re reading this on the web, or it was forwarded to you from someone else, you can sign up for it and all Globe newsletters here.