| Donald Trump, self-described tariff man, is holding off for now on imposing across-the-board duties on imports, but he’s keeping Canada and Mexico in his sights. The president’s threat to slap 25% tariffs on goods from the US’s North American neighbors, citing migrant crossings and fentanyl trafficking, may be more negotiating tactic than policy pronouncement. But if he does impose the duties, the impact could be felt in the price of gasoline, cars, housing and groceries.  Trump in the Oval Office Photographer: Jim Lo Scalzo/EPA Vehicles and oil top the list of products imported to the US from Mexico and Canada, raising the prospect of higher costs for both if the tariffs are fully passed along to consumers. (In reality, the tariff hit is usually divided between the importers and exporters.) Food prices also would see a significant increase, according to an analysis by Ed Gresser, who led the US Trade Representative’s economic research work during the first Trump administration. Mexico is the top producer of American winter vegetables and fruit, such as tomatoes, peppers, avocados, lemons and limes. Canada also ships consumables to the US, including beer. All of that could put a crimp on Super Bowl parties if Trump puts the tariffs in place Feb. 1 as threatened. The US also imports softwood lumber used in housing from Canada. That could be quite the way to start the four-year term of a president who was elected in part due to voter dismay over rising prices, particularly at the supermarket. The pain would be big for Mexico and Canada, however. A Bloomberg Economics analysis finds that the two nations could lose as much as 70% of their roughly $890 billion in exports to the US. The two countries would be likely to respond with reciprocal tariffs on American goods. Canada is the top export market for 36 US states and Mexico is the leading destination for six – including border states California, Texas, Arizona and New Mexico, according to Gresser, now at the Progressive Policy Institute think tank. Trump has bristled at any suggestions he is pulling back on his tariff pledges. But the economic impact of the tariffs helps explain why some analysts have concluded that Trump’s threats, coming as the USMCA trade accord is up for review next year, mostly are a prelude to negotiations. — Eric Martin | 
