Reimagining American Economic Leadership |
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Dear RealEcon Readers,
Despite a flurry of day-one executive orders, newly inaugurated President Donald Trump surprised many people by not immediately announcing his plans for new tariffs—at least not formally. He did hint at imposing 25 percent tariffs on Canada and Mexico as soon as February 1 and issued a lengthy memo on America First Trade Policy, directing various cabinet officials to investigate the causes of trade deficits, compliance with existing trade agreements, foreign unfair trade practices, and currency manipulation.
Not surprisingly, trade and tariffs are likely to take center stage in the RealEcon Initiative’s work over the coming months and years. We include several pieces on the topic below. Also in this edition is a new article by Senior Fellow for Geoeconomics Jonathan E. Hillman highlighting the thousands of economic restrictions that have been imposed by countries each year over the past five years. And we feature a number of new pieces by other Greenberg Center fellows, including Whitney Shepardson Senior Fellow Brad W. Setser, Maurice R. Greenberg Senior Fellow for China Studies Zongyuan Zoe Liu, and David M. Rubenstein Senior Fellow for Energy and the Environment Alice C. Hill.
Thank you for your interest in the RealEcon Initiative. I value your feedback on this newsletter and your ideas for how the initiative can be more useful and impactful. —Matthew P. Goodman, Director of the Greenberg Center for Geoeconomic Studies and Director of the CFR RealEcon Initiative |
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A regular series on the choices faced by international economic policymakers | |
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The Trump administration has lauded tariffs as policy panacea, but rising uncertainty around global trade will make it all the more difficult to bring inflation under control, writes former Barack Obama administration policy advisor Christopher Smart. Read more
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Economics and security are increasingly colliding as governments grapple with a range of risks, posits Hillman. Read more |
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Trump has threatened new tariffs on all imports from Canada and Mexico. His trade plans threaten the future of the United States’ largest free trade agreement, the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), writes Senior Vice President, Director of Studies, and Maurice R. Greenberg Chair Shannon K. O'Neil and Special Assistant and Research Associate Julia Huesa. Read more
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Correcting the major imbalances in the global economy will require collaborative international action. If he wants results, argues economist Joanna Shelton, Trump will need to rein in his penchant to go it alone. Read more |
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Featured From the Greenberg Center |
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This interactive map tracks China’s growing network of investments in overseas airports. Users can plot the location of each airport and view satellite images, says Liu. Read more
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As Germany heads for federal elections in February 2025, a specter is haunting the country: deindustrialization. German industrial production is way below its 2018 peak and started declining earlier, and faster, than in other eurozone countries, write Setser and Centre for European Reform Chief Economist Sander Tordoir. Read more
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The wildfire devastation in Los Angeles will require California to develop far greater resiliency to climate-worsened disasters to sustain its revival—and a path for withstanding future disasters, posits Hill. Read more
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Senior Fellow Edward Alden sits down with Mary and David Boies Distinguished Senior Fellow in U.S. Foreign Policy and Director of Fellowship Affairs James M. Lindsay to discuss Trump’s proposed immigration policies and their likely effects on the economy. Read more
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Two-thirds of generic sterile injectable drugs in shortage could be imported from well-regulated foreign markets, write Bloomberg Chair in Global Health Thomas J. Bollyky, Think Global Health Staff Editor Allison Krugman, and Research Associate for Global Health Chloe Searchinger. Read more
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CFR’s Preventive Priorities Survey finds that the worsening of ongoing conflicts in the Middle East, Russian military gains in Ukraine, and heightened tensions at the U.S.-Mexico border are experts’ top global concerns for 2025. |
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