What Trump ignores

Friends,

Asked yesterday whether there was anything Prime Minister Justin Trudeau of Canada could offer to avoid tariffs, Trump said, from the Oval Office, “I’d like to see Canada become our 51st state.”

That, my friends, sums up where we are.

Canada and Mexico have avoided tariffs for the next thirty. days, but they haven’t really done anything differently than they were doing before Trump threatened them.

Canada’s border plan was already underway, including the deployment of additional technology and personnel to the border. Mexico had already ramped up border enforcement before Trump’s threats.

Yet Trump is declaring victory over Canada and Mexico. and, when asked whether he’ll follow through on raising tariffs on our neighbors next month, says “we’ll see.”

Every time Trump says “we’ll see,” what he’s really saying is “I’ll wait and see how much subservience I get.” Because, as I’ve noted, this is all performative. It’s about showing strength — not just displaying it to Canada and Mexico, but also to the rest of the world — and, in return, getting shows of submissiveness.

The oldest bullying technique is to threaten little guys who don’t have nearly the power you have — say, Canada, Mexico, Columbia, and Greenland (Greenland!) — and then, when they appear to cave, announce that your bullying has worked. And then move on to larger targets.

Trump is now talking about imposing tariffs on the European Union. What does Europe need to do to avoid them? Trump hasn’t said. If they asked him, he’d say “we’ll see.”

Meanwhile, the world trading system is quietly reorienting itself. Businesses in Canada, Mexico, and Europe are eyeing each another as potentially larger partners for trade and direct investment, the hell with the United States.

China is sending out invitations to them all. The United States is a huge economy, but China’s is bigger. Its market is huge. And it can produce wonders. Why kiss Trump’s derriere? Why take a chance with even more of his bullying?

This is China’s moment.

Trade is a small part of Trump’s bullying, of course. He wants signs of submission — performances of respect — from everyone, including power centers inside the United States.

Total submission will wreck American democracy, which was designed to prevent a monarch from taking over. But total submission will not get America back on track.

Yesterday, a politically diverse group of scholars released a report card on American well-being. As Trump hurls threats and insults at Canada, Mexico, and Europe, the report presents a sobering comparison of the United States relative to other rich countries.

It finds that the United States has the lowest life expectancy of any rich country. (This was not true for most of the 20th century.)

America also has the highest murder rate of any rich country — not because undocumented people are plundering and pillaging their way across the land (the rate of violent crime by people in the United States illegally is lower than the rate of violent crime by people here legally) — but because of our remarkably high rates of poverty and homelessness, and extraordinarily easy access to guns.

America has the world’s highest rate of fatal drug overdoses — not because drugs are pouring in from over the border but because we have among the highest rates of youth depression and hopelessness, especially among young people who won’t be graduating from college.

And we have one of the lowest rates of trust in the federal government. Why? My guess is it’s because most Americans see American politics in the pockets of big money from giant corporations and the super-wealthy (like the Muskrat, who sunk more than a quarter billion into getting Trump elected, and the 13 other billionaires now working for Trump).

Americans don’t hate government. They just want a government that works for them — providing Social Security and Medicare, and help when they need it (say, emergency relief from FEMA) — not one that bails out big banks and doles out corporate welfare. (Hands up if you think the Muskrat is going to end corporate welfare.)

Overall, when Americans are asked how satisfied we are with our lives, we rank lower than we did three decades ago. Our economy is much larger than it was then, but we’re more miserable. Is it any wonder?

Instead of dealing with these real problems, Trump is telling Canada and Mexico to do what they’ve already been doing. He also wants Canada to become the 51st state.

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